A critical thermal transition driving spring phenology of Northern Hemisphere conifers

Huang, Jian-Guo and Zhang, Yaling and Wang, Minhuang and Yu, Xiaohan and Deslauriers, Annie and Fonti, Patrick and Liang, Eryuan and Makinen, Harri and Oberhuber, Walter and Rathgeber, Cyrille B. K. and Tognetti, Roberto and Treml, Vaclav and Yang, Bao and Zhai, Lihong and Zhang, Jiao-Lin and Antonucci, Serena and Bergeron, Yves and Camarero, Jesus Julio and Campelo, Filipe and Cufar, Katarina and Cuny, Henri E. and De Luis, Martin and Fajstavr, Marek and Giovannelli, Alessio and Gricar, Jozica and Gruber, Andreas and Gryc, Vladimir and Gueney, Aylin and Jyske, Tuula and Kaspar, Jakub and King, Gregory and Krause, Cornelia and Lemay, Audrey and Liu, Feng and Lombardi, Fabio and del Castillo, Edurne Martinez and Morin, Hubert and Nabais, Cristina and Nojd, Pekka and Peters, Richard L. and Prislan, Peter and Saracino, Antonio and Shishov, Vladimir V. and Swidrak, Irene and Vavrcik, Hanus and Vieira, Joana and Zeng, Qiao and Liu, Yu and Rossi, Sergio. (2023) A critical thermal transition driving spring phenology of Northern Hemisphere conifers. Global Change Biology, 29 (6). pp. 1606-1617.

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Official URL: https://edoc.unibas.ch/95243/

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Despite growing interest in predicting plant phenological shifts, advanced spring phenology by global climate change remains debated. Evidence documenting either small or large advancement of spring phenology to rising temperature over the spatio-temporal scales implies a potential existence of a thermal threshold in the responses of forests to global warming. We collected a unique data set of xylem cell-wall-thickening onset dates in 20 coniferous species covering a broad mean annual temperature (MAT) gradient (-3.05 to 22.9 degrees C) across the Northern Hemisphere (latitudes 23 degrees-66 degrees N). Along the MAT gradient, we identified a threshold temperature (using segmented regression) of 4.9 +/- 1.1 degrees C, above which the response of xylem phenology to rising temperatures significantly decline. This threshold separates the Northern Hemisphere conifers into cold and warm thermal niches, with MAT and spring forcing being the primary drivers for the onset dates (estimated by linear and Bayesian mixed-effect models), respectively. The identified thermal threshold should be integrated into the Earth-System-Models for a better understanding of spring phenology in response to global warming and an improved prediction of global climate-carbon feedbacks.
Faculties and Departments:05 Faculty of Science > Departement Umweltwissenschaften > Integrative Biologie > Physiological Plant Ecology (Kahmen)
UniBasel Contributors:Peters, Richard
Item Type:Article, refereed
Article Subtype:Research Article
Note:Publication type according to Uni Basel Research Database: Journal article
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Last Modified:10 Jul 2023 13:09
Deposited On:10 Jul 2023 13:09

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