Risk factor-based screening compared to universal screening for gestational diabetes mellitus in marginalized Burman and Karen populations on the Thailand-Myanmar border: an observational cohort

Background: Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) contributes significantly to maternal and neonatal morbidity, but data from marginalized populations remains scarce. This study aims to compare risk-factor-based screening to universal testing for GDM among migrants along the Thailand-Myanmar border. Methods: From the prospective cohort (September 2016, February 2019), 374 healthy pregnant women completed a 75g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) at 24-32 weeks gestation. Fasting, one hour and two hour cut-offs were based on Hyperglycaemia and Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes (HAPO trial) criteria and cases were treated. The sensitivity and specificity of risk-factor-based screening criteria was calculated using OGTT as the gold standard. Risk factors included at least one positive finding among 10 criteria, e.g., obesity (body mass index (BMI) >/=27.5kg/m (2)), 1 (st) degree relative with diabetes etc. Adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes were compared by GDM status, and risk factors for GDM were explored. Results: GDM prevalence was 13.4% (50/374) (95% CI: 10.3-17.2). Risk-factors alone correctly identified 74.0% (37/50) OGTT positive cases: sensitivity 74.0% (59.7-85.4) and specificity 27.8% (3.0-33.0). Burman women accounted for 29.1% of the cohort population, but 38.0% of GDM cases. Percentiles for birthweight (p=0.004), head circumference (p=0.005), and weight-length ratio (p=0.010) were higher in newborns of GDM mothers compared with non-GDM, yet 21.7% (75/346) of newborns in the cohort were small-for-gestational age. In Burman women, overweight/obese BMI was associated with a significantly increased adjusted odds ratio 5.03 (95% CI: 1.43-17.64) for GDM compared to normal weight, whereas underweight and overweight/obese in Karen women were both associated with similarly elevated adjusted odds, approximately 2.4-fold (non-significant) for GDM. GDM diagnosis by OGTT was highest prior to peak rainfall. Conclusions: Risk-factor-based screening was not sufficiently sensitive or specific to be useful to diagnose GDM in this setting among a cohort of low-risk pregnant women. A two-step universal screening program has thus been implemented.