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Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the number of new infections with COVID-19 during the first epidemic wave

Banholzer, Nicolas and van Weenen, Eva and Lison, Adrian and Cenedese, Alberto and Seeliger, Arne and Kratzwald, Bernhard and Tschernutter, Daniel and Salles, Joan Puig and Bottrighi, Pierluigi and Lehtinen, Sonja and Feuerriegel, Stefan and Vach, Werner. (2021) Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the number of new infections with COVID-19 during the first epidemic wave. PLoS ONE, 16 (6). e0252827.

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Official URL: https://edoc.unibas.ch/84141/

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Abstract

The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has rapidly developed into a global epidemic. To control its spread, countries have implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as school closures, bans of small gatherings, or even stay-at-home orders. Here we study the effectiveness of seven NPIs in reducing the number of new infections, which was inferred from the reported cases of COVID-19 using a semi-mechanistic Bayesian hierarchical model. Based on data from the first epidemic wave of n = 20 countries (i.e., the United States, Canada, Australia, the EU-15 countries, Norway, and Switzerland), we estimate the relative reduction in the number of new infections attributed to each NPI. Among the NPIs considered, bans of large gatherings were most effective, followed by venue and school closures, whereas stay-at-home orders and work-from-home orders were least effective. With this retrospective cross-country analysis, we provide estimates regarding the effectiveness of different NPIs during the first epidemic wave.
Faculties and Departments:05 Faculty of Science > Departement Umweltwissenschaften > Integrative Biologie > Integrative Prähistorische und Naturwissenschaftliche Archäologie (IPNA)
UniBasel Contributors:Vach, Werner
Item Type:Article, refereed
Article Subtype:Research Article
Publisher:Public Library of Science
e-ISSN:1932-6203
Note:Publication type according to Uni Basel Research Database: Journal article
Identification Number:
Last Modified:06 Sep 2021 09:38
Deposited On:06 Sep 2021 09:38

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