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Incidence trends of airflow obstruction among European adults without asthma: a 20-year cohort study

Accordini, Simone and Calciano, Lucia and Marcon, Alessandro and Pesce, Giancarlo and Antó, Josep M. and Beckmeyer-Borowko, Anna B. and Carsin, Anne-Elie and Corsico, Angelo G. and Imboden, Medea and Janson, Christer and Keidel, Dirk and Locatelli, Francesca and Svanes, Cecilie and Burney, Peter G. J. and Jarvis, Deborah and Probst-Hensch, Nicole M. and Minelli, Cosetta. (2020) Incidence trends of airflow obstruction among European adults without asthma: a 20-year cohort study. Scientific reports, 10. p. 3452.

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Abstract

Investigating COPD trends may help healthcare providers to forecast future disease burden. We estimated sex- and smoking-specific incidence trends of pre-bronchodilator airflow obstruction (AO) among adults without asthma from 11 European countries within a 20-year follow-up (ECRHS and SAPALDIA cohorts). We also quantified the extent of misclassification in the definition based on pre-bronchodilator spirometry (using post-bronchodilator measurements from a subsample of subjects) and we used this information to estimate the incidence of post-bronchodilator AO (AO; post-BD; ), which is the primary characteristic of COPD. AO incidence was 4.4 (95% CI: 3.5-5.3) male and 3.8 (3.1-4.6) female cases/1,000/year. Among ever smokers (median pack-years: 20, males; 12, females), AO incidence significantly increased with ageing in men only [incidence rate ratio (IRR), 1-year increase: 1.05 (1.03-1.07)]. A strong exposure-response relationship with smoking was found both in males [IRR, 1-pack-year increase: 1.03 (1.02-1.04)] and females [1.03 (1.02-1.05)]. The positive predictive value of AO for AO; post-BD; was 59.1% (52.0-66.2%) in men and 42.6% (35.1-50.1%) in women. AO; post-BD; incidence was 2.6 (1.7-3.4) male and 1.6 (1.0-2.2) female cases/1,000/year. AO incidence was considerable in Europe and the sex-specific ageing-related increase among ever smokers was strongly related to cumulative tobacco exposure. AO; post-BD; incidence is expected to be half of AO incidence.
Faculties and Departments:09 Associated Institutions > Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH) > Department of Epidemiology and Public Health (EPH) > Chronic Disease Epidemiology > Genetic Epidemiology of Non-Communicable Diseases (Probst-Hensch)
03 Faculty of Medicine > Departement Public Health > Sozial- und Präventivmedizin > Genetic Epidemiology of Non-Communicable Diseases (Probst-Hensch)
09 Associated Institutions > Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH)
UniBasel Contributors:Beckmeyer-Borowko, Anna and Imboden, Medea and Probst Hensch, Nicole
Item Type:Article, refereed
Article Subtype:Research Article
Publisher:Springer Nature
ISSN:0169-5487
Note:Publication type according to Uni Basel Research Database: Journal article
Language:English
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Last Modified:11 Mar 2020 08:36
Deposited On:11 Mar 2020 08:36

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