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Annual and seasonal spatial models for nitrogen oxides in Tehran, Iran

Amini, Heresh and Taghavi-Shahri, Seyed-Mahmood and Henderson, Sarah B. and Hosseini, Vahid and Hassankhany, Hossein and Naderi, Maryam and Ahadi, Solmaz and Schindler, Christian and Künzli, Nino and Yunesian, Masud. (2016) Annual and seasonal spatial models for nitrogen oxides in Tehran, Iran. Scientific Reports, 6. p. 32970.

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Official URL: http://edoc.unibas.ch/44182/

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Abstract

Very few land use regression (LUR) models have been developed for megacities in low- and middle-income countries, but such models are needed to facilitate epidemiologic research on air pollution. We developed annual and seasonal LUR models for ambient oxides of nitrogen (NO, NO2, and NOX) in the Middle Eastern city of Tehran, Iran, using 2010 data from 23 fixed monitoring stations. A novel systematic algorithm was developed for spatial modeling. The R(2) values for the LUR models ranged from 0.69 to 0.78 for NO, 0.64 to 0.75 for NO2, and 0.61 to 0.79 for NOx. The most predictive variables were: distance to the traffic access control zone; distance to primary schools; green space; official areas; bridges; and slope. The annual average concentrations of all pollutants were high, approaching those reported for megacities in Asia. At 1000 randomly-selected locations the correlations between cooler and warmer season estimates were 0.64 for NO, 0.58 for NOX, and 0.30 for NO2. Seasonal differences in spatial patterns of pollution are likely driven by differences in source contributions and meteorology. These models provide a basis for understanding long-term exposures and chronic health effects of air pollution in Tehran, where such research has been limited.
Faculties and Departments:09 Associated Institutions > Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH)
09 Associated Institutions > Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH) > Department of Epidemiology and Public Health (EPH) > Biostatistics > Biostatistics - Frequency Modelling (Schindler)
UniBasel Contributors:Amini, Hassan and Schindler, Christian and Künzli, Nino
Item Type:Article, refereed
Publisher:Nature Publishing Group
e-ISSN:2045-2322
Note:Publication type according to Uni Basel Research Database: Journal article
Identification Number:
Last Modified:12 Oct 2017 09:47
Deposited On:27 Oct 2016 09:24

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