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Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability

Lee, Jae Young and Kim, Ho and Gasparrini, Antonio and Armstrong, Ben and Bell, Michelle L. and Sera, Francesco and Lavigne, Eric and Abrutzky, Rosana and Tong, Shilu and Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio and Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento and Correa, Patricia Matus and Ortega, Nicolas Valdes and Kan, Haidong and Garcia, Samuel Osorio and Kyselý, Jan and Urban, Aleš and Orru, Hans and Indermitte, Ene and Jaakkola, Jouni J. K. and Ryti, Niilo R. I. and Pascal, Mathilde and Goodman, Patrick G. and Zeka, Ariana and Michelozzi, Paola and Scortichini, Matteo and Hashizume, Masahiro and Honda, Yasushi and Hurtado, Magali and Cruz, Julio and Seposo, Xerxes and Nunes, Baltazar and Teixeira, João Paulo and Tobias, Aurelio and Íñiguez, Carmen and Forsberg, Bertil and Åström, Christofer and Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria and Ragettli, Martina S. and Guo, Yue-Liang Leon and Chen, Bing-Yu and Zanobetti, Antonella and Schwartz, Joel and Dang, Tran Ngoc and Do Van, Dung and Mayvaneh, Fetemeh and Overcenco, Ala and Li, Shanshan and Guo, Yuming. (2019) Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability. Environment international, 131. p. 105027.

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Abstract

An increase in the global health burden of temperature was projected for 459 locations in 28 countries worldwide under four representative concentration pathway scenarios until 2099. We determined that the amount of temperature increase for each 100 ppm increase in global CO; 2; concentrations is nearly constant, regardless of climate scenarios. The overall average temperature increase during 2010-2099 is largest in Canada (1.16 °C/100 ppm) and Finland (1.14 °C/100 ppm), while it is smallest in Ireland (0.62 °C/100 ppm) and Argentina (0.63 °C/100 ppm). In addition, for each 1 °C temperature increase, the amount of excess mortality is increased largely in tropical countries such as Vietnam (10.34%p/°C) and the Philippines (8.18%p/°C), while it is decreased in Ireland (-0.92%p/°C) and Australia (-0.32%p/°C). To understand the regional variability in temperature increase and mortality, we performed a regression-based modeling. We observed that the projected temperature increase is highly correlated with daily temperature range at the location and vulnerability to temperature increase is affected by health expenditure, and proportions of obese and elderly population.
Faculties and Departments:09 Associated Institutions > Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH)
09 Associated Institutions > Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH) > Department of Epidemiology and Public Health (EPH) > Environmental Exposures and Health Systems Research > Physical Hazards and Health (Röösli)
UniBasel Contributors:Ragettli, Martina
Item Type:Article, refereed
Article Subtype:Research Article
Publisher:Elsevier
ISSN:0160-4120
Note:Publication type according to Uni Basel Research Database: Journal article
Language:English
Identification Number:
edoc DOI:
Last Modified:12 Aug 2019 09:59
Deposited On:12 Aug 2019 09:59

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