The distribution of exchange rates under a minimum exchange rate regime

This paper adjusts the Chen and Giovannini (1992) methodology to estimate the unconditional distribution of exchange rates under a one-sided target zone regime, where a central bank commits itself to intervene on foreign exchange markets to prevent its currency to move beyond a previously announced target level vis-à-vis a specific foreign currency. An application of this methodology to the 2011–2015 EUR/CHF minimum exchange rate regime shows that the Swiss National Bank presumably intervened only at (or very close to) the floor level of EUR/CHF 1.20 and not at a level significantly above that boundary. Hence, contrary to previous studies, the reported results accord with the predictions of the Krugman (1991) target zone model about the behavior of exchange rates, allowing investors to gain insights about the central bank’s policy function in extraordinary monetary situations and with important consequences for the descriptive validity of theoretical one-sided target zone models.