The emergence of angiostrongyliasis in the People's Republic of China: the interplay between invasive snails, climate change and transmission dynamics

P<1. Only few freshwater snail species transmit the rat lungworm Angiostrongylus cantonensis, which is partially explained by the low likelihood of contact between snails and infected rat faeces. The snail Pomacea canaliculata was introduced into China in 1981 and has become the key intermediate host for A. cantonensis. Thus far, the snail has been recorded in 13 provinces of southern China. 2. We developed a biological model and assessed potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of P. canaliculata and hence the transmission of A. cantonensis. Mean January temperature and snail generation intensity (generation number) were identified as the key factors determining P. canaliculata distribution. Our models predict an increase of 56.9% for the 'spread' and a decrease of 40.9% for the 'establishment' regions ('spread' and 'establishment' defined according to a national sampling survey) by the 2030s relative to the present day. 3. Key determinants of A. cantonensis transmission were identified as the generation intensity in the intermediate host, the longevity of A. cantonensis-infected rats and the dormant period of P. canaliculata. Transmission of A. cantonensis occurs only in areas where the snail's dormant period is > 173.2 days. The potential endemic area of A. cantonensis is predicted to double by the 2030s relative to the present day. 4. The tight fit of our model predictions with data derived from a national sampling survey suggests that biological models hold promise for assessing potential impacts of climate change on infectious diseases once key determinants have been established. Geographical variation analysis may offer an approach to identify areas prone to the spread of vectors, intermediate hosts and parasites in a future warmer China and elsewhere