Predictors of specific phobia in young women : a prospective community study

Potential predictors of incidence of specific phobia were investigated within the conceptual framework of the vulnerability–stress model. At two time points separated by approximately 17 months, a community sample of 1261 German women (18–25 years of age) completed a structured interview. A broad range of potential stress- and vulnerability-related predictors was recorded at initial assessment. The strongest predictors of incidence were: high levels of preexisting psychopathology, a lack of coping skills, and a negative cognitive style. Assessing individual differences in stress and vulnerability thus seem to offer additional information about etiology of specific phobia beyond traditional learning theory. Incorporating the role of these risk factors may be useful for identifying individuals who are at increased risk and improving measures of prevention.