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Estimating COVID-19-induced excess mortality in Lombardy, Italy

Maruotti, A. and Jona-Lasinio, G. and Divino, F. and Lovison, G. and Ciccozzi, M. and Farcomeni, A.. (2022) Estimating COVID-19-induced excess mortality in Lombardy, Italy. Aging clinical and experimental research, 34 (2). pp. 475-479.

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Official URL: https://edoc.unibas.ch/90641/

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Abstract

We compare the expected all-cause mortality with the observed one for different age classes during the pandemic in Lombardy, which was the epicenter of the epidemic in Italy. The first case in Italy was found in Lombardy in early 2020, and the first wave was mainly centered in Lombardy. The other three waves, in Autumn 2020, March 2021 and Summer 2021 are also characterized by a high number of cases in absolute terms. A generalized linear mixed model is introduced to model weekly mortality from 2011 to 2019, taking into account seasonal patterns and year-specific trends. Based on the 2019 year-specific conditional best linear unbiased predictions, a significant excess of mortality is estimated in 2020, leading to approximately 35000 more deaths than expected, mainly arising during the first wave. In 2021, instead, the excess mortality is not significantly different from zero, for the 85+ and 15-64 age classes, and significant reductions with respect to the 2020 estimated excess mortality are estimated for other age classes.
Faculties and Departments:09 Associated Institutions > Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH)
09 Associated Institutions > Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH) > Department of Epidemiology and Public Health (EPH) > Chronic Disease Epidemiology > Exposome Science (Probst-Hensch)
03 Faculty of Medicine > Departement Public Health > Sozial- und Präventivmedizin > Exposome Science (Probst-Hensch)
UniBasel Contributors:Lovison, Gianfranco
Item Type:Article, refereed
Article Subtype:Research Article
ISSN:1594-0667
Note:Publication type according to Uni Basel Research Database: Journal article
Identification Number:
Last Modified:27 Dec 2022 12:31
Deposited On:27 Dec 2022 12:31

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