Wastewater-based estimation of the effective reproductive number of SARS-CoV-2

Huisman, J. S. and Scire, J. and Caduff, L. and Fernandez-Cassi, X. and Ganesanandamoorthy, P. and Kull, A. and Scheidegger, A. and Stachler, E. and Boehm, A. B. and Hughes, B. and Knudson, A. and Topol, A. and Wigginton, K. R. and Wolfe, M. K. and Kohn, T. and Ort, C. and Stadler, T. and Julian, T. R.. (2022) Wastewater-based estimation of the effective reproductive number of SARS-CoV-2. Environmental health perspectives, 130 (5). p. 57011.

Full text not available from this repository.

Official URL: https://edoc.unibas.ch/90551/

Downloads: Statistics Overview


BACKGROUND: The effective reproductive number, Re, is a critical indicator to monitor disease dynamics, inform regional and national policies, and estimate the effectiveness of interventions. It describes the average number of new infections caused by a single infectious person through time. To date, Re estimates are based on clinical data such as observed cases, hospitalizations, and/or deaths. These estimates are temporarily biased when clinical testing or reporting strategies change. OBJECTIVES: We show that the dynamics of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) RNA in wastewater can be used to estimate Re in near real time, independent of clinical data and without the associated biases. METHODS: We collected longitudinal measurements of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater in Zurich, Switzerland, and San Jose, California, USA. We combined this data with information on the temporal dynamics of shedding (the shedding load distribution) to estimate a time series proportional to the daily COVID-19 infection incidence. We estimated a wastewater-based Re from this incidence. RESULTS: The method to estimate Re from wastewater worked robustly on data from two different countries and two wastewater matrices. The resulting estimates were as similar to the Re estimates from case report data as Re estimates based on observed cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are among each other. We further provide details on the effect of sampling frequency and the shedding load distribution on the ability to infer Re. DISCUSSION: To our knowledge, this is the first time Re has been estimated from wastewater. This method provides a low-cost, rapid, and independent way to inform SARS-CoV-2 monitoring during the ongoing pandemic and is applicable to future wastewater-based epidemiology targeting other pathogens. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP10050.
Faculties and Departments:09 Associated Institutions > Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH)
09 Associated Institutions > Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH) > Department of Epidemiology and Public Health (EPH) > Eco System Health Sciences > Ecosystem Services, Climate & Health (Cissé)
UniBasel Contributors:Julian, Timothy
Item Type:Article, refereed
Article Subtype:Research Article
Note:Publication type according to Uni Basel Research Database: Journal article
Identification Number:
Last Modified:27 Dec 2022 10:20
Deposited On:27 Dec 2022 10:20

Repository Staff Only: item control page