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Nationwide analysis of the heat- and cold-related mortality trends in Switzerland between 1969 and 2017: the role of population aging

de Schrijver, E. and Bundo, M. and Ragettli, M. S. and Sera, F. and Gasparrini, A. and Franco, O. H. and Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M.. (2022) Nationwide analysis of the heat- and cold-related mortality trends in Switzerland between 1969 and 2017: the role of population aging. Environmental health perspectives, 130 (3). p. 37001.

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Official URL: https://edoc.unibas.ch/90428/

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Abstract

BACKGROUND: Because older adults are particularly vulnerable to nonoptimal temperatures, it is expected that the progressive population aging will amplify the health burden attributable to heat and cold due to climate change in future decades. However, limited evidence exists on the contribution of population aging on historical temperature-mortality trends. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to a) assess trends in heat- and cold-related mortality in Switzerland between 1969 and 2017 and b) to quantify the contribution of population aging to the observed patterns. METHODS: We collected daily time series of all-cause mortality by age group ( /=80-y-old age group. Cold-related mortality rates decreased across all ages, but annual cold-related deaths still increased among the >/=80, due to the increase in the population at risk. We estimated that heat- and cold-related deaths would have been 52.7% and 44.6% lower, respectively, in the most recent decade in the absence of population aging. DISCUSSION: Our findings suggest that a substantial proportion of historical temperature-related impacts can be attributed to population aging. We found that population aging has attenuated the decrease in cold-related mortality and amplified heat-related mortality.
Faculties and Departments:09 Associated Institutions > Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH)
09 Associated Institutions > Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH) > Department of Epidemiology and Public Health (EPH) > Environmental Exposures and Health Systems Research > Physical Hazards and Health (Röösli)
UniBasel Contributors:Ragettli, Martina
Item Type:Article, refereed
Article Subtype:Research Article
ISSN:0091-6765
Note:Publication type according to Uni Basel Research Database: Journal article
Identification Number:
Last Modified:21 Dec 2022 17:53
Deposited On:21 Dec 2022 17:53

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