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Modelling the impact of COVID-19-related programme interruptions on visceral leishmaniasis in India

Le Rutte, E. A. and Coffeng, L. E. and Munoz, J. and de Vlas, S. J.. (2021) Modelling the impact of COVID-19-related programme interruptions on visceral leishmaniasis in India. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg, 115 (3). pp. 229-235.

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Official URL: https://edoc.unibas.ch/89176/

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Abstract

BACKGROUND: In March 2020, India declared a nationwide lockdown to control the spread of coronavirus disease 2019. As a result, control efforts against visceral leishmaniasis (VL) were interrupted. METHODS: Using an established age-structured deterministic VL transmission model, we predicted the impact of a 6- to 24-month programme interruption on the timeline towards achieving the VL elimination target as well as on the increase of VL cases. We also explored the potential impact of a mitigation strategy after the interruption. RESULTS: Delays towards the elimination target are estimated to range between 0 and 9 y. Highly endemic settings where control efforts have been ongoing for 5-8 y are most affected by an interruption, for which we identified a mitigation strategy to be most relevant. However, more importantly, all settings can expect an increase in the number of VL cases. This increase is substantial even for settings with a limited expected delay in achieving the elimination target. CONCLUSIONS: Besides implementing mitigation strategies, it is of great importance to try and keep the duration of the interruption as short as possible to prevent new individuals from becoming infected with VL and continue the efforts towards VL elimination as a public health problem in India.
Faculties and Departments:09 Associated Institutions > Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH)
09 Associated Institutions > Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH) > Department of Epidemiology and Public Health (EPH) > Disease Modelling > Disease Modelling and Intervention Dynamics (Penny)
UniBasel Contributors:Le Rütte, Epke
Item Type:Article, refereed
Article Subtype:Research Article
ISSN:1878-3503 (Electronic)0035-9203 (Linking)
Note:Publication type according to Uni Basel Research Database: Journal article
Language:English
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Last Modified:20 Dec 2022 12:21
Deposited On:20 Dec 2022 12:21

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