Mortality risk attributable to wildfire-related PM2.5 pollution: a global time series study in 749 locations

Chen, G. and Guo, Y. and Yue, X. and Tong, S. and Gasparrini, A. and Bell, M. L. and Armstrong, B. and Schwartz, J. and Jaakkola, J. J. K. and Zanobetti, A. and Lavigne, E. and Nascimento Saldiva, P. H. and Kan, H. and Roye, D. and Milojevic, A. and Overcenco, A. and Urban, A. and Schneider, A. and Entezari, A. and Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M. and Zeka, A. and Tobias, A. and Nunes, B. and Alahmad, B. and Forsberg, B. and Pan, S. C. and Iñiguez, C. and Ameling, C. and De la Cruz Valencia, C. and Åström, C. and Houthuijs, D. and Van Dung, D. and Samoli, E. and Mayvaneh, F. and Sera, F. and Carrasco-Escobar, G. and Lei, Y. and Orru, H. and Kim, H. and Holobaca, I. H. and Kyselý, J. and Teixeira, J. P. and Madureira, J. and Katsouyanni, K. and Hurtado-Diaz, M. and Maasikmets, M. and Ragettli, M. S. and Hashizume, M. and Stafoggia, M. and Pascal, M. and Scortichini, M. and de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coêlho, M. and Valdes Ortega, N. and Ryti, N. R. I. and Scovronick, N. and Matus, P. and Goodman, P. and Garland, R. M. and Abrutzky, R. and Garcia, S. O. and Rao, S. and Fratianni, S. and Dang, T. N. and Colistro, V. and Huber, V. and Lee, W. and Seposo, X. and Honda, Y. and Guo, Y. L. and Ye, T. and Yu, W. and Abramson, M. J. and Samet, J. M. and Li, S.. (2021) Mortality risk attributable to wildfire-related PM2.5 pollution: a global time series study in 749 locations. Lancet Planet Health, 5 (9). e579-e587.

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BACKGROUND: Many regions of the world are now facing more frequent and unprecedentedly large wildfires. However, the association between wildfire-related PM2.5 and mortality has not been well characterised. We aimed to comprehensively assess the association between short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2.5 and mortality across various regions of the world. METHODS: For this time series study, data on daily counts of deaths for all causes, cardiovascular causes, and respiratory causes were collected from 749 cities in 43 countries and regions during 2000-16. Daily concentrations of wildfire-related PM2.5 were estimated using the three-dimensional chemical transport model GEOS-Chem at a 0.25 degrees x 0.25 degrees resolution. The association between wildfire-related PM2.5 exposure and mortality was examined using a quasi-Poisson time series model in each city considering both the current-day and lag effects, and the effect estimates were then pooled using a random-effects meta-analysis. Based on these pooled effect estimates, the population attributable fraction and relative risk (RR) of annual mortality due to acute wildfire-related PM2.5 exposure was calculated. FINDINGS: 65.6 million all-cause deaths, 15.1 million cardiovascular deaths, and 6.8 million respiratory deaths were included in our analyses. The pooled RRs of mortality associated with each 10 mug/m(3) increase in the 3-day moving average (lag 0-2 days) of wildfire-related PM2.5 exposure were 1.019 (95% CI 1.016-1.022) for all-cause mortality, 1.017 (1.012-1.021) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1.019 (1.013-1.025) for respiratory mortality. Overall, 0.62% (95% CI 0.48-0.75) of all-cause deaths, 0.55% (0.43-0.67) of cardiovascular deaths, and 0.64% (0.50-0.78) of respiratory deaths were annually attributable to the acute impacts of wildfire-related PM2.5 exposure during the study period. INTERPRETATION: Short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2.5 was associated with increased risk of mortality. Urgent action is needed to reduce health risks from the increasing wildfires. FUNDING: Australian Research Council, Australian National Health & Medical Research Council.
Faculties and Departments:09 Associated Institutions > Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH)
09 Associated Institutions > Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH) > Department of Epidemiology and Public Health (EPH) > Environmental Exposures and Health Systems Research > Physical Hazards and Health (Röösli)
UniBasel Contributors:Ragettli, Martina
Item Type:Article, refereed
Article Subtype:Research Article
ISSN:2542-5196 (Electronic)2542-5196 (Linking)
Note:Publication type according to Uni Basel Research Database: Journal article
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Last Modified:19 Dec 2022 12:30
Deposited On:19 Dec 2022 12:30

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