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Predicting the impact of COVID-19 interruptions on transmission of; gambiense; human African trypanosomiasis in two health zones of the Democratic Republic of Congo

Aliee, M. and Castaño, S. and Davis, C. N. and Patel, S. and Miaka, E. M. and Spencer, S. E. F. and Keeling, M. J. and Chitnis, N. and Rock, K. S.. (2021) Predicting the impact of COVID-19 interruptions on transmission of; gambiense; human African trypanosomiasis in two health zones of the Democratic Republic of Congo. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg, 115 (3). pp. 245-252.

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Abstract

Many control programmes against neglected tropical diseases have been interrupted due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, including those that rely on active case finding. In this study we focus on gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT), where active screening was suspended in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) due to the pandemic. We use two independent mathematical models to predict the impact of COVID-19 interruptions on transmission and reporting and achievement of the 2030 elimination of transmission (EOT) goal for gHAT in two moderate-risk regions of the DRC. We consider different interruption scenarios, including reduced passive surveillance in fixed health facilities, and whether this suspension lasts until the end of 2020 or 2021. Our models predict an increase in the number of new infections in the interruption period only if both active screening and passive surveillance were suspended, and with a slowed reduction-but no increase-if passive surveillance remains fully functional. In all scenarios, the EOT may be slightly pushed back if no mitigation, such as increased screening coverage, is put in place. However, we emphasise that the biggest challenge will remain in the higher-prevalence regions where EOT is already predicted to be behind schedule without interruptions unless interventions are bolstered.
Faculties and Departments:09 Associated Institutions > Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH)
09 Associated Institutions > Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH) > Department of Epidemiology and Public Health (EPH) > Disease Modelling > Mathematical Epidemiology (Chitnis)
UniBasel Contributors:Castaño, Soledad and Chitnis, Nakul
Item Type:Article, refereed
Article Subtype:Research Article
ISSN:1878-3503 (Electronic)0035-9203 (Linking)
Note:Publication type according to Uni Basel Research Database: Journal article
Language:English
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Last Modified:19 Dec 2022 11:58
Deposited On:19 Dec 2022 11:58

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