What impacts the impact of rare events

Erev, I. and Glozman, I. and Hertwig, R.. (2008) What impacts the impact of rare events. Journal of risk and uncertainty, Vol. 36. pp. 153-177.

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Official URL: http://edoc.unibas.ch/dok/A5259904

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Kahneman and Tversky (Econometrica 47:263–291, 1979) argued that “unlikely events are either neglected or overweighted,” but left the task of identifying factors that determine which of these contradicting biases occur to future research. We present four studies designed to tackle this issue in the context of decisions from incomplete descriptions. Our findings suggest that the impact of unlikely events increases when they become more similar to their comparison stimuli, and when they are explicitly presented. Using these factors we reversed the findings in variants of classic gambles in the history of decision research, the Allais and the St. Petersburg gambles.
Faculties and Departments:07 Faculty of Psychology > Departement Psychologie > Ehemalige Einheiten Psychologie > Cognitive and Decision Sciences (Hertwig)
UniBasel Contributors:Hertwig, Ralph
Item Type:Article, refereed
Article Subtype:Research Article
Publisher:Kluwer Academic Publ.
Note:Publication type according to Uni Basel Research Database: Journal article
Last Modified:22 Mar 2012 14:25
Deposited On:22 Mar 2012 13:44

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