The Admit-AF risk score: A clinical risk score for predicting hospital admissions in patients with atrial fibrillation

Meyre, Pascal and Aeschbacher, Stefanie and Blum, Steffen and Coslovsky, Michael and Beer, Jürg H. and Moschovitis, Giorgio and Rodondi, Nicolas and Baretella, Oliver and Kobza, Richard and Sticherling, Christian and Bonati, Leo H. and Schwenkglenks, Matthias and Kühne, Michael and Osswald, Stefan and Conen, David and Swiss-AF and BEAT-AF Investigators, . (2021) The Admit-AF risk score: A clinical risk score for predicting hospital admissions in patients with atrial fibrillation. European Journal of Preventive Cardiology, 28 (6). pp. 624-630.

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Official URL: https://edoc.unibas.ch/81604/

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Aims: To develop and externally validate a risk score for all-cause hospital admissions in patients with atrial fibrillation. Methods and results: We used a prospective cohort of 2387 patients with established atrial fibrillation as derivation cohort. Independent risk factors were selected from a broad range of variables using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method fit to a Cox model. The risk score was validated in a separate prospective cohort of 1300 atrial fibrillation patients. The incidence of all-cause hospital admission was 19.1 per 100 person-years in the derivation cohort and it was 26.1 per 100 person-years in the validation cohort. The most important predictors for admission were age (75–79 years: adjusted hazard ratio (aHR), 1.34; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.01–1.78; 80–84 years: aHR, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.11–2.03; ≥85 years: aHR, 1.88; 95% CI, 1.36–2.62), prior pulmonary vein isolation (aHR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.58–0.88), hypertension (aHR, 1.16; 95% CI, 0.99–1.36), diabetes (aHR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.17–1.62), coronary heart disease (aHR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.02–1.36), prior stroke/transient ischaemic attack (aHR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.18–1.47), heart failure (aHR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.03–1.39), peripheral artery disease (aHR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.08–1.67), cancer (aHR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.12–1.57), renal failure (aHR, 1.17; 95% CI, 0.99–1.37) and previous falls (aHR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.13–1.74). A risk score with these variables was well calibrated, and achieved a C-index of 0.64 in the derivation and 0.59 in the validation cohort. Conclusions: Multiple risk factors were associated with hospital admissions in atrial fibrillation patients. This prediction tool selects high-risk patients who may benefit from preventive interventions.
Faculties and Departments:03 Faculty of Medicine > Departement Public Health > Pharmazeutische Medizin ECPM > Pharmazeutische Medizin (Szucs)
UniBasel Contributors:Schwenkglenks, Matthias
Item Type:Article, refereed
Article Subtype:Research Article
Publisher:European Society of Cardiology
Note:Publication type according to Uni Basel Research Database: Journal article
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Last Modified:21 Jun 2021 12:57
Deposited On:21 Jun 2021 12:57

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