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Impact of changes in detection effort on control of visceral leishmaniasis in the Indian subcontinent

Coffeng, Luc E. and Le Rutte, Epke A. and Muñoz, Johanna and Adams, Emily R. and Prada, Joaquin M. and de Vlas, Sake J. and Medley, Graham F.. (2020) Impact of changes in detection effort on control of visceral leishmaniasis in the Indian subcontinent. Journal of infectious diseases, 221 (Suppl. 5). S546-S553.

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Abstract

Control of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) on the Indian subcontinent relies on prompt detection and treatment of symptomatic cases. Detection efforts influence the observed VL incidence and how well it reflects the underlying true incidence. As control targets are defined in terms of observed cases, there is an urgent need to understand how changes in detection delay and population coverage of improved detection affect VL control.; Using a mathematical model for transmission and control of VL, we predict the impact of reduced detection delays and/or increased population coverage of the detection programs on observed and true VL incidence and mortality.; Improved case detection, either by higher coverage or reduced detection delay, causes an initial rise in observed VL incidence before a reduction. Relaxation of improved detection may lead to an apparent temporary (1 year) reduction in VL incidence, but comes with a high risk of resurging infection levels. Duration of symptoms in detected cases shows an unequivocal association with detection effort.; VL incidence on its own is not a reliable indicator of the performance of case detection programs. Duration of symptoms in detected cases can be used as an additional marker of the performance of case detection programs.
Faculties and Departments:09 Associated Institutions > Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH)
09 Associated Institutions > Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH) > Department of Epidemiology and Public Health (EPH) > Disease Dynamics > Mathematical Epidemiology (Chitnis)
UniBasel Contributors:Le Rutte, Epke
Item Type:Article, refereed
Article Subtype:Research Article
Publisher:Oxford University Press
ISSN:0022-1899
Note:Publication type according to Uni Basel Research Database: Journal article
Language:English
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Last Modified:10 Jul 2020 12:41
Deposited On:10 Jul 2020 12:41

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