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The potential impact of human visceral leishmaniasis vaccines on population incidence

Le Rutte, Epke A. and Coffeng, Luc E. and Malvolti, Stefano and Kaye, Paul M. and de Vlas, Sake J.. (2020) The potential impact of human visceral leishmaniasis vaccines on population incidence. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 14 (7). e0008468.

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Abstract

Human visceral leishmaniasis (VL) vaccines are currently under development and there is a need to understand their potential impact on population wide VL incidence. We implement four characteristics from different human VL vaccine candidates into two published VL transmission model variants to estimate the potential impact of these vaccine characteristics on population-wide anthroponotic VL incidence on the Indian subcontinent (ISC). The vaccines that are simulated in this study 1) reduce the infectiousness of infected individuals towards sand flies, 2) reduce risk of developing symptoms after infection, 3) reduce the risk of developing post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL), or 4) lead to the development of transient immunity. We also compare and combine a vaccine strategy with current interventions to identify their potential role in elimination of VL as a public health problem. We show that the first two simulated vaccine characteristics can greatly reduce VL incidence. For these vaccines, an approximate 60% vaccine efficacy would lead to achieving the ISC elimination target (<1 VL case per 10,000 population per year) within 10 years' time in a moderately endemic setting when vaccinating 100% of the population. Vaccinating VL cases to prevent the development of PKDL is a promising tool to sustain the low incidence elimination target after regular interventions are halted. Vaccines triggering the development of transient immunity protecting against infection lead to the biggest reduction in VL incidence, but booster doses are required to achieve perduring impact. Even though vaccines are not yet available for implementation, their development should be pursued as their potential impact on transmission can be substantial, both in decreasing incidence at the population level as well as in sustaining the ISC elimination target when other interventions are halted.
Faculties and Departments:09 Associated Institutions > Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH)
09 Associated Institutions > Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH) > Department of Epidemiology and Public Health (EPH) > Disease Dynamics > Mathematical Epidemiology (Chitnis)
UniBasel Contributors:Le Rutte, Epke
Item Type:Article, refereed
Article Subtype:Research Article
Publisher:Public Library of Science
ISSN:1935-2727
e-ISSN:1935-2735
Note:Publication type according to Uni Basel Research Database: Journal article
Language:English
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Last Modified:10 Jul 2020 11:07
Deposited On:10 Jul 2020 11:07

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