(Mis-)Predicted Subjective Well-Being Following Life Events

Odermatt, Reto and Stutzer, Alois. (2019) (Mis-)Predicted Subjective Well-Being Following Life Events. Journal of the European Economic Association, 17 (1). pp. 245-283.

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Official URL: https://edoc.unibas.ch/73433/

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The correct prediction of how alternative states of the world affect our lives is a cornerstone of economics. We study how accurate people are in predicting their future well-being after facing major life events. Based on individual panel data, we compare people's life satisfaction forecasts reported in the first interview after a major life event with their actual evaluations five years later on. This is done after the individuals experience widowhood, unemployment, disability, marriage, separation, or divorce. We find systematic prediction errors that seem at least partly driven by unforeseen adaptation after the first four of these events.
Faculties and Departments:06 Faculty of Business and Economics > Departement Wirtschaftswissenschaften > Professuren Wirtschaftswissenschaften > Politische ├ľkonomie (Stutzer)
UniBasel Contributors:Stutzer, Alois and Odermatt, Reto
Item Type:Article, refereed
Article Subtype:Research Article
Publisher:Oxford University Press
Note:Publication type according to Uni Basel Research Database: Journal article
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Last Modified:17 Dec 2019 09:51
Deposited On:17 Dec 2019 09:51

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