Validation of climate model-inferred regional temperature change for late-glacial Europe

Heiri, Oliver and Brooks, Stephen J. and Renssen, Hans and Bedford, Alan and Hazekamp, Marjolein and Ilyashuk, Boris and Jeffers, Elizabeth S. and Lang, Barbara and Kirilova, Emiliya and Kuiper, Saskia and Millet, Laurent and Samartin, Stéphanie and Toth, Monika and Verbruggen, Frederike and Watson, Jenny E. and van Asch, Nelleke and Lammertsma, Emmy and Amon, Leeli and Birks, Hilary H. and Birks, H. John B. and Mortensen, Morten F. and Hoek, Wim Z. and Magyari, Enikö and Sobrino, Castor Muñoz and Seppä, Heikki and Tinner, Willy and Tonkov, Spassimir and Veski, Siim and Lotter, André F.. (2014) Validation of climate model-inferred regional temperature change for late-glacial Europe. Nature Communications, 5. p. 4914.

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Official URL: https://edoc.unibas.ch/69354/

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Comparisons of climate model hindcasts with independent proxy data are essential for assessing model performance in non-analogue situations. However, standardized palaeoclimate data sets for assessing the spatial pattern of past climatic change across continents are lacking for some of the most dynamic episodes of Earth's recent past. Here we present a new chironomid-based palaeotemperature dataset designed to assess climate model hindcasts of regional summer temperature change in Europe during the late-glacial and early Holocene. Latitudinal and longitudinal patterns of inferred temperature change are in excellent agreement with simulations by the ECHAM-4 model, implying that atmospheric general circulation models like ECHAM-4 can successfully predict regionally diverging temperature trends in Europe, even when conditions differ significantly from present. However, ECHAM-4 infers larger amplitudes of change and higher temperatures during warm phases than our palaeotemperature estimates, suggesting that this and similar models may overestimate past and potentially also future summer temperature changes in Europe.
Faculties and Departments:05 Faculty of Science > Departement Umweltwissenschaften > Geowissenschaften > Geoökologie (Heiri)
UniBasel Contributors:Heiri, Oliver
Item Type:Article, refereed
Article Subtype:Research Article
Publisher:Nature Publishing Group
Note:Publication type according to Uni Basel Research Database: Journal article
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Last Modified:16 Nov 2020 15:42
Deposited On:16 Nov 2020 15:42

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