Time heterogeneous programs of vaccination awareness : modeling and analysis

Buonomo, B. and Chitnis, N. and D'Onofrio, A.. (2018) Time heterogeneous programs of vaccination awareness : modeling and analysis. Ricerche di matematica, 67 (1). pp. 205-225.

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Official URL: https://edoc.unibas.ch/69276/

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We investigate the role of time heterogeneity of public health systems efforts in favoring the propensity of parents to vaccinate their newborns against a target childhood disease. The starting point of our investigation is the behavioral-epidemiology model proposed by d’Onofrio et al. (PLoS ONE 7:e45653, 2012), where the PHS effort was assumed to be constant. We also consider the co-presence of another layer of temporal heterogeneity: seasonality in the contact rate of the disease. We mainly assume that the effort is periodic with a 1-year period because of alternating working and holiday periods. We show that if the average effort is larger than a threshold, then the disease can be eliminated leading to an ideal equilibrium point with 100% of vaccinated newborns. A more realistic disease-free equilibrium can also be reached, under a condition that depends on the whole form of the time profile describing the PHS effort. We also generalize our disease elimination-related results to a wide class of time-heterogenous PHS efforts. Finally, we analytically show that if the disease elimination is not reached, then the disease remains uniformly persistent.
Faculties and Departments:09 Associated Institutions > Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH) > Former Units within Swiss TPH > Infectious Disease Modelling > Epidemiology and Transmission Dynamics (Smith)
UniBasel Contributors:Chitnis, Nakul
Item Type:Article, refereed
Article Subtype:Research Article
Note:Publication type according to Uni Basel Research Database: Journal article
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Last Modified:09 Jan 2020 11:30
Deposited On:05 Mar 2019 14:40

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