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A metapopulation model of dog rabies transmission in N'Djamena, Chad

Laager, Mirjam and Léchenne, Monique and Naissengar, Kemdongarti and Mindekem, Rolande and Oussiguere, Assandi and Zinsstag, Jakob and Chitnis, Nakul. (2019) A metapopulation model of dog rabies transmission in N'Djamena, Chad. Journal of theoretical biology, 462. pp. 408-417.

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Abstract

Rabies transmission was interrupted for several months in N'Djamena, the capital city of Chad, after two mass vaccination campaigns of dogs. However, there was a resurgence in cases, which was not predicted by previous models of rabies transmission. We developed a deterministic metapopulation model with importation of latent dogs, calibrated to four years of weekly incidence data from passive surveillance, to investigate possible causes for the early resurgence. Our results indicate that importation of latently infective dogs better explains the data than heterogeneity or underreporting. Stochastic implementations of the model suggest that the two vaccination campaigns averted approximately 67 cases of dog rabies (out of an estimated 74 cases without vaccination) and 124 human exposures (out of an estimated 148 human exposures without vaccination) over two years. Dog rabies vaccination is therefore an effective way of preventing rabies in the dog population and to subsequently reduce human exposure. However, vaccination campaigns have to be repeated to maintain the effect or reintroduction through importation has to be prevented.
Faculties and Departments:09 Associated Institutions > Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH)
09 Associated Institutions > Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH) > Department of Epidemiology and Public Health (EPH) > Human and Animal Health > One Health (Zinsstag)
09 Associated Institutions > Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH) > Department of Epidemiology and Public Health (EPH) > Infectious Disease Modelling > Infectious Disease Modelling (Smith)
UniBasel Contributors:Laager, Mirjam and Zinsstag, Jakob Z and Chitnis, Nakul
Item Type:Article, refereed
Article Subtype:Research Article
Publisher:Elsevier
ISSN:0022-5193
e-ISSN:1095-8541
Note:Publication type according to Uni Basel Research Database: Journal article
Language:English
Identification Number:
Last Modified:11 Feb 2019 16:42
Deposited On:11 Feb 2019 16:42

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