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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Murray, Christopher J L and Callender, Charlton S K H and Kulikoff, Xie Rachel and Srinivasan, Vinay and Abate, Degu and Abate, Kalkidan Hassen and Abay, Solomon M and Abbasi, Nooshin and Abbastabar, Hedayat and Abdela, Jemal and Abdelalim, Ahmed and Abdel-Rahman, Omar and Abdi, Alireza and Abdoli, Nasrin and Abdollahpour, Ibrahim and Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi and Abebe, Haftom Temesgen and Abebe, Molla and Abebe, Zegeye and Abebo, Teshome Abuka and Abejie, Ayenew Negesse and Aboyans, Victor and Abraha, Haftom Niguse and Abreu, Daisy Maria Xavier and Abrham, Aklilu Roba and Abu-Raddad, Laith Jamal and Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M E and Accrombessi, Manfred Mario Kokou and Acharya, Pawan and Adamu, Abdu A and Adebayo, Oladimeji M and Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi and Adekanmbi, Victor and Adetokunboh, Olatunji O and Adhena, Beyene Meressa and Adhikari, Tara Ballav and Adib, Mina G and Adou, Arsène Kouablan and Adsuar, Jose C and Afarideh, Mohsen and Afshin, Ashkan and Agarwal, Gina and Agesa, Kareha M and Aghayan, Sargis Aghasi and Agrawal, Sutapa and Ahmadi, Alireza and Ahmadi, Mehdi and Ahmed, Muktar Beshir and Ahmed, Sayem and Aichour, Amani Nidhal and Aichour, Ibtihel and Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine and Akanda, Ali S and Akbari, Mohammad Esmaeil and Akibu, Mohammed and Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola and Akinyemiju, Tomi and Akseer, Nadia and Alahdab, Fares and Al-Aly, Ziyad and Alam, Khurshid and Alebel, Animut and Aleman, Alicia V and Alene, Kefyalew Addis and Al-Eyadhy, Ayman and Ali, Raghib and Alijanzadeh, Mehran and Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza and Aljunid, Syed Mohamed and Alkerwi, Ala'a and Alla, François and Allebeck, Peter and Almasi, Ali and Alonso, Jordi and Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M and Alsharif, Ubai and Altirkawi, Khalid and Alvis-Guzman, Nelson and Amare, Azmeraw T and Ammar, Walid and Anber, Nahla Hamed and Andrei, Catalina Liliana and Androudi, Sofia and Animut, Megbaru Debalkie and Ansari, Hossein and Ansha, Mustafa Geleto and Antonio, Carl Abelardo T and Appiah, Seth Christopher Yaw and Aremu, Olatunde and Areri, Habtamu Abera and Arian, Nicholas and Ärnlöv, Johan and Artaman, Al and Aryal, Krishna K and Asayesh, Hamid and Asfaw, Ephrem Tsegay and Asgedom, Solomon Weldegebreal and Assadi, Reza and Atey, Tesfay Mehari Mehari and Atique, Suleman and Atteraya, Madhu Sudhan and Ausloos, Marcel and Avokpaho, Euripide F G A and Awasthi, Ashish and Ayala Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina and Ayele, Yohanes and Ayer, Rakesh and Ayuk, Tambe B and Azzopardi, Peter S and Babalola, Tesleem Kayode and Babazadeh, Arefeh and Badali, Hamid and Badawi, Alaa and Bali, Ayele Geleto and Banach, Maciej and Barker-Collo, Suzanne Lyn and Bärnighausen, Till Winfried and Barrero, Lope H and Basaleem, Huda and Bassat, Quique and Basu, Arindam and Baune, Bernhard T and Baynes, Habtamu Wondifraw and Beghi, Ettore and Behzadifar, Masoud and Behzadifar, Meysam and Bekele, Bayu Begashaw and Belachew, Abate Bekele and Belay, Aregawi Gebreyesus and Belay, Ezra and Belay, Saba Abraham and Belay, Yihalem Abebe and Bell, Michelle L and Bello, Aminu K and Bennett, Derrick A and Bensenor, Isabela M and Bergeron, Gilles and Berhane, Adugnaw and Berman, Adam E and Bernabe, Eduardo and Bernstein, Robert S and Bertolacci, Gregory J and Beuran, Mircea and Bhattarai, Suraj and Bhaumik, Soumyadeep and Bhutta, Zulfiqar A and Biadgo, Belete and Bijani, Ali and Bikbov, Boris and Bililign, Nigus and Bin Sayeed, Muhammad Shahdaat and Birlik, Sait Mentes and Birungi, Charles and Biswas, Tuhin and Bizuneh, Hailemichael and Bleyer, Archie and Basara, Berrak Bora and Bosetti, Cristina and Boufous, Soufiane and Brady, Oliver J and Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi and Brainin, Michael and Brazinova, Alexandra and Breitborde, Nicholas J K and Brenner, Hermann and Brewer, Jerry D and Briant, Paul Svitil and Britton, Gabrielle and Burstein, Roy and Busse, Reinhard and Butt, Zahid A and Cahuana-Hurtado, Lucero and Campos-Nonato, Ismael R and Campuzano Rincon, Julio Cesar and Cano, Jorge and Car, Mate and Cárdenas, Rosario and Carrero, Juan J and Carvalho, Félix and Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A and Castillo Rivas, Jacqueline and Castro, Franz and Catalá-López, Ferrán and Çavlin, Alanur and Cerin, Ester and Chalek, Julian and Chang, Hsing-Yi and Chang, Jung-Chen and Chattopadhyay, Aparajita and Chaturvedi, Pankaj and Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia and Chin, Ken Lee and Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe and Chitheer, Abdulaal and Choi, Jee-Young J and Chowdhury, Rajiv and Christopher, Devasahayam J and Cicuttini, Flavia M and Ciobanu, Liliana G and Cirillo, Massimo and Claro, Rafael M and Collado-Mateo, Daniel and Constantin, Maria-Magdalena and Conti, Sara and Cooper, Cyrus and Cooper, Leslie Trumbull and Cornaby, Leslie and Cortesi, Paolo Angelo and Cortinovis, Monica and Costa, Megan and Cromwell, Elizabeth and Crowe, Christopher Stephen and Cukelj, Petra and Cunningham, Matthew and Daba, Alemneh Kabeta and Dachew, Berihun Assefa and Dandona, Lalit and Dandona, Rakhi and Dargan, Paul I and Daryani, Ahmad and Das Gupta, Rajat and Das Neves, José and Dasa, Tamirat Tesfaye and Dash, Aditya Prasad and Weaver, Nicole Davis and Davitoiu, Dragos Virgil and Davletov, Kairat and De Leo, Diego and De Neve, Jan-Walter and Degefa, Meaza Girma and Degenhardt, Louisa and Degfie, Tizta Tilahun and Deiparine, Selina and Demoz, Gebre Teklemariam and Demtsu, Balem and Denova-Gutiérrez, Edgar and Deribe, Kebede and Dervenis, Nikolaos and Des Jarlais, Don C and Dessie, Getenet Ayalew and Dharmaratne, Samath D and Dhimal, Meghnath and Dicker, Daniel and Ding, Eric L and Dinsa, Girmaye Deye and Djalalinia, Shirin and Do, Huyen Phuc and Dokova, Klara and Doku, David Teye and Dolan, Kate A and Doyle, Kerrie E and Driscoll, Tim R and Dubey, Manisha and Dubljanin, Eleonora and Duken, Eyasu Ejeta and Duraes, Andre R and Ebrahimpour, Soheil and Edvardsson, David and El Bcheraoui, Charbel and El-Khatib, Ziad and Elyazar, Iqbal Rf and Enayati, Ahmadali and Endries, Aman Yesuf and Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich and Eshrati, Babak and Eskandarieh, Sharareh and Esmaeili, Reza and Esteghamati, Alireza and Esteghamati, Sadaf and Estep, Kara and Fakhim, Hamed and Farag, Tamer and Faramarzi, Mahbobeh and Fareed, Mohammad and Farinha, Carla Sofia E Sá and Faro, Andre and Farvid, Maryam S and Farzadfar, Farshad and Farzaei, Mohammad Hosein and Fay, Kairsten A and Fazeli, Mir Sohail and Feigin, Valery L and Feigl, Andrea B and Feizy, Fariba and Fenny, Ama P and Fentahun, Netsanet and Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad and Fernandes, Eduarda and Feyissa, Garumma Tolu and Filip, Irina and Finegold, Samuel and Fischer, Florian and Flor, Luisa Sorio and Foigt, Nataliya A and Foreman, Kyle J and Fornari, Carla and Fürst, Thomas and Fukumoto, Takeshi and Fuller, John E and Fullman, Nancy and Gakidou, Emmanuela and Gallus, Silvano and Gamkrelidze, Amiran and Ganji, Morsaleh and Gankpe, Fortune Gbetoho and Garcia, Gregory M and Garcia-Gordillo, Miguel Á and Gebre, Abadi Kahsu and Gebre, Teshome and Gebregergs, Gebremedhin Berhe and Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde and Gebremedhin, Amanuel Tesfay and Gelano, Tilayie Feto and Gelaw, Yalemzewod Assefa and Geleijnse, Johanna M and Genova-Maleras, Ricard and Gething, Peter and Gezae, Kebede Embaye and Ghadami, Mohammad Rasoul and Ghadimi, Reza and Ghadiri, Keyghobad and Ghasemi Falavarjani, Khalil and Ghasemi-Kasman, Maryam and Ghiasvand, Hesam and Ghimire, Mamata and Ghoshal, Aloke Gopal and Gill, Paramjit Singh and Gill, Tiffany K and Giussani, Giorgia and Gnedovskaya, Elena V and Goli, Srinivas and Gomez, Ricardo Santiago and Gómez-Dantés, Hector and Gona, Philimon N and Goodridge, Amador and Gopalani, Sameer Vali and Goulart, Alessandra C and Goulart, Bárbara Niegia Garcia and Grada, Ayman and Grosso, Giuseppe and Gugnani, Harish Chander C and Guo, Jingwen and Guo, Yuming and Gupta, Prakash C and Gupta, Rahul and Gupta, Rajeev and Gupta, Tanush and Haagsma, Juanita A and Hachinski, Vladimir and Hafezi-Nejad, Nima and Hagos, Tekleberhan B and Hailegiyorgis, Tewodros Tesfa and Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa and Haj-Mirzaian, Arvin and Haj-Mirzaian, Arya and Hamadeh, Randah R and Hamidi, Samer and Handal, Alexis J and Hankey, Graeme J and Hao, Yuantao and Harb, Hilda L and Haririan, Hamidreza and Haro, Josep Maria and Hasan, Mehedi and Hassankhani, Hadi and Hassen, Hamid Yimam and Havmoeller, Rasmus and Hay, Simon I and He, Yihua and Hedayatizadeh-Omran, Akbar and Hegazy, Mohamed I and Heibati, Behzad and Heidari, Behnam and Hendrie, Delia and Henok, Andualem and Henry, Nathaniel J and Herteliu, Claudiu and Heydarpour, Fatemeh and Hibstu, Desalegn T and Hole, Michael K and Homaie Rad, Enayatollah and Hoogar, Praveen and Hosgood, H Dean and Hosseini, Seyed Mostafa and Hosseini Chavoshi, Meimanat M and Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi and Hostiuc, Mihaela and Hostiuc, Sorin and Hsairi, Mohamed and Hsiao, Thomas and Hu, Guoqing and Huang, John J and Iburg, Kim Moesgaard and Igumbor, Ehimario U and Ikeda, Chad Thomas and Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen and Iqbal, Usman and Irenso, Asnake Ararsa and Irvani, Seyed Sina Naghibi and Isehunwa, Oluwaseyi Oluwakemi and Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful and Jahangiry, Leila and Jahanmehr, Nader and Jain, Sudhir Kumar and Jakovljevic, Mihajlo and Jalu, Moti Tolera and James, Spencer L and Jassal, Simerjot K and Javanbakht, Mehdi and Jayatilleke, Achala Upendra and Jeemon, Panniyammakal and Jha, Ravi Prakash and Jha, Vivekanand and Ji, John S and Jonas, Jost B and Jozwiak, Jacek Jerzy and Jungari, Suresh Banayya and Jürisson, Mikk and Kabir, Zubair and Kadel, Rajendra and Kahsay, Amaha and Kalani, Rizwan and Kapil, Umesh and Karami, Manoochehr and Matin, Behzad Karami and Karch, André and Karema, Corine and Karimi, Seyed M and Kasaeian, Amir and Kassa, Dessalegn H and Kassa, Getachew Mullu and Kassa, Tesfaye Dessale and Kassa, Zemenu Yohannes and Kassebaum, Nicholas J and Kastor, Anshul and Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal and Kaul, Anil and Kawakami, Norito and Karyani, Ali Kazemi and Kebede, Seifu and Keiyoro, Peter Njenga and Kemp, Grant Rodgers and Kengne, Andre Pascal and Keren, Andre and Kereselidze, Maia and Khader, Yousef Saleh and Khafaie, Morteza Abdullatif and Khajavi, Alireza and Khalid, Nauman and Khalil, Ibrahim A and Khan, Ejaz Ahmad and Khan, Muhammad Shahzeb and Khang, Young-Ho and Khanna, Tripti and Khater, Mona M and Khatony, Alireza and Khazaeipour, Zahra and Khazaie, Habibolah and Khoja, Abdullah T and Khosravi, Ardeshir and Khosravi, Mohammad Hossein and Kibret, Getiye D and Kidanemariam, Zelalem Teklemariam and Kiirithio, Daniel N and Kilgore, Paul Evan and Kim, Daniel and Kim, Jun Y and Kim, Young-Eun and Kim, Yun Jin and Kimokoti, Ruth W and Kinfu, Yohannes and Kinra, Sanjay and Kisa, Adnan and Kivimäki, Mika and Kochhar, Sonali and Kokubo, Yoshihiro and Kolola, Tufa and Kopec, Jacek A and Kosek, Margaret N and Kosen, Soewarta and Koul, Parvaiz A and Koyanagi, Ai and Krishan, Kewal and Krishnaswami, Sanjay and Krohn, Kristopher J and Defo, Barthelemy Kuate and Bicer, Burcu Kucuk and Kumar, G Anil and Kumar, Manasi and Kumar, Pushpendra and Kumsa, Fekede Asefa and Kutz, Michael J and Lad, Sheetal D and Lafranconi, Alessandra and Lal, Dharmesh Kumar and Lalloo, Ratilal and Lam, Hilton and Lami, Faris Hasan and Lang, Justin J and Lanksy, Sonia and Lansingh, Van C and Laryea, Dennis Odai and Lassi, Zohra S and Latifi, Arman and Laxmaiah, Avula and Lazarus, Jeffrey V and Lee, James B and Lee, Paul H and Leigh, James and Leshargie, Cheru Tesema and Leta, Samson and Levi, Miriam and Li, Shanshan and Li, Xiaohong and Li, Yichong and Liang, Juan and Liang, Xiaofeng and Liben, Misgan Legesse and Lim, Lee-Ling and Limenih, Miteku Andualem and Linn, Shai and Liu, Shiwei and Lorkowski, Stefan and Lotufo, Paulo A and Lozano, Rafael and Lunevicius, Raimundas and Mabika, Crispin Mabika and Macarayan, Erlyn Rachelle King and Mackay, Mark T and Madotto, Fabiana and Mahmood, Tarek Abd Elaziz and Mahotra, Narayan Bahadur and Majdan, Marek and Majdzadeh, Reza and Majeed, Azeem and Malekzadeh, Reza and Malik, Manzoor Ahmad and Mamun, Abdullah A and Manamo, Wondimu Ayele and Manda, Ana-Laura and Mangalam, Srikanth and Mansournia, Mohammad Ali and Mantovani, Lorenzo Giovanni and Mapoma, Chabila Christopher and Marami, Dadi and Maravilla, Joemer C and Marcenes, Wagner and Marina, Shakhnazarova and Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio and März, Winfried and Marzan, Melvin B and Mashamba-Thompson, Tivani Phosa and Masiye, Felix and Mason-Jones, Amanda J and Massenburg, Benjamin Ballard and Mathur, Manu Raj and Maulik, Pallab K and Mazidi, Mohsen and McGrath, John J and Mehata, Suresh and Mehendale, Sanjay Madhav and Mehndiratta, Man Mohan and Mehrotra, Ravi and Mehrzadi, Saeed and Mehta, Kala M and Mehta, Varshil and Mekonnen, Tefera C and Meles, Hagazi Gebre and Meles, Kidanu Gebremariam and Melese, Addisu and Melku, Mulugeta and Memiah, Peter T N and Memish, Ziad A and Mendoza, Walter and Mengesha, Melkamu Merid and Mengistu, Desalegn Tadese and Mengistu, Getnet and Mensah, George A and Mereta, Seid Tiku and Meretoja, Atte and Meretoja, Tuomo J and Mestrovic, Tomislav and Mezgebe, Haftay Berhane and Miangotar, Yode and Miazgowski, Bartosz and Miazgowski, Tomasz and Miller, Ted R and Miller-Petrie, Molly Katherine and Mini, G K and Mirabi, Parvaneh and Mirica, Andreea and Mirrakhimov, Erkin M and Misganaw, Awoke Temesgen and Moazen, Babak and Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin and Mohammadi, Moslem and Mohammadifard, Noushin and Mohammadi-Khanaposhtani, Maryam and Mohammed, Mohammed A and Mohammed, Shafiu and Mokdad, Ali H and Mola, Glen Dl and Molokhia, Mariam and Monasta, Lorenzo and Montañez, Julio Cesar and Moradi, Ghobad and Moradi, Mahmoudreza and Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar and Moradinazar, Mehdi and Moraga, Paula and Morgado-Da-Costa, Joana and Mori, Rintaro and Morrison, Shane Douglas and Mosapour, Abbas and Moschos, Marilita M and Mousavi, Seyyed Meysam and Muche, Achenef Asmamaw and Muchie, Kindie Fentahun and Mueller, Ulrich Otto and Mukhopadhyay, Satinath and Muller, Kate and Murphy, Tasha B and Murthy, G V S and Musa, Jonah and Musa, Kamarul Imran and Mustafa, Ghulam and Muthupandian, Saravanan and Nachega, Jean B and Nagel, Gabriele and Naghavi, Mohsen and Naheed, Aliya and Nahvijou, Azin and Naik, Gurudatta and Naik, Paulami and Najafi, Farid and Naldi, Luigi and Nangia, Vinay and Nansseu, Jobert Richie and Nascimento, Bruno Ramos and Nawaz, Haseeb and Ncama, Busisiwe P and Neamati, Nahid and Negoi, Ionut and Negoi, Ruxandra Irina and Neupane, Subas and Newton, Charles Richard James and Ngalesoni, Frida N and Ngunjiri, Josephine W and Nguyen, Grant and Nguyen, Long Hoang and Nguyen, Trang Huyen and Ningrum, Dina Nur Anggraini and Nirayo, Yirga Legesse and Nisar, Muhammad Imran and Nixon, Molly R and Nomura, Shuhei and Noroozi, Mehdi and Noubiap, Jean Jacques and Nouri, Hamid Reza and Shiadeh, Malihe Nourollahpour and Nowroozi, Mohammad Reza and Nyandwi, Alypio and Nyasulu, Peter S and Odell, Christopher M and Ofori-Asenso, Richard and Ogah, Okechukwu Samuel and Ogbo, Felix Akpojene and Oh, In-Hwan and Okoro, Anselm and Oladimeji, Olanrewaju and Olagunju, Andrew T and Olagunju, Tinuke O and Olivares, Pedro R and Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola and Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun and Ong, Sok King and Ortiz, Alberto and Osgood-Zimmerman, Aaron and Ota, Erika and Otieno, Brenda Achieng and Otstavnov, Stanislav S and Owolabi, Mayowa Ojo and Oyekale, Abayomi Samuel and P A, Mahesh and Pakhale, Smita and Pakhare, Abhijit P and Pana, Adrian and Panda, Basant Kumar and Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra and Pandey, Achyut Raj and Park, Eun-Kee and Parsian, Hadi and Patel, Shanti and Patil, Snehal T and Patle, Ajay and Patton, George C and Paturi, Vishnupriya Rao and Paudel, Deepak and Pedroso, Marcel Moraes and Peprah, Emmanuel K and Pereira, David M and Perico, Norberto and Pesudovs, Konrad and Petri, William A and Petzold, Max and Pierce, Maxwell and Pigott, David M and Pillay, Julian David and Pirsaheb, Meghdad and Polanczyk, Guilherme V and Postma, Maarten J and Pourmalek, Farshad and Pourshams, Akram and Poustchi, Hossein and Prakash, Swayam and Prasad, Narayan and Purcell, Caroline A and Purwar, Manorama B and Qorbani, Mostafa and Quansah, Reginald and Radfar, Amir and Rafay, Anwar and Rafiei, Alireza and Rahim, Fakher and Rahimi-Movaghar, Afarin and Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa and Rahman, Mahfuzar and Rahman, Md Shafiur and Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur and Rahman, Muhammad Aziz and Rahman, Sajjad Ur and Rai, Rajesh Kumar and Rajati, Fatemeh and Rajsic, Sasa and Ram, Usha and Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal and Ranjan, Prabhat and Rawaf, David Laith and Rawaf, Salman and Ray, Sarah E and Razo-García, Christian and Reiner, Robert C and Reis, Cesar and Remuzzi, Giuseppe and Renzaho, Andre M N and Resnikoff, Serge and Rezaei, Satar and Rezaeian, Shahab and Rezai, Mohammad Sadegh and Riahi, Seyed Mohammad and Rios-Blancas, Maria Jesus and Roba, Kedir Teji and Roberts, Nicholas L S and Roever, Leonardo and Ronfani, Luca and Roshandel, Gholamreza and Rostami, Ali and Rubagotti, Enrico and Ruhago, George Mugambage and Sabde, Yogesh Damodar and Sachdev, Perminder S and Saddik, Basema and Saeedi Moghaddam, Sahar and Safari, Hosein and Safari, Yahya and Safari-Faramani, Roya and Safdarian, Mahdi and Safi, Sare and Safiri, Saeid and Sagar, Rajesh and Sahebkar, Amirhossein and Sahraian, Mohammad Ali and Sajadi, Haniye Sadat and Salahshoor, Mohamadreza and Salam, Nasir and Salama, Joseph S and Salamati, Payman and Saldanha, Raphael De Freitas and Saleem, Zikria and Salimi, Yahya and Salimzadeh, Hamideh and Salomon, Joshua A and Salvi, Sundeep Santosh and Salz, Inbal and Sambala, Evanson Zondani and Samy, Abdallah M and Sanabria, Juan and Sanchez-Niño, Maria Dolores and Santos, Itamar S and Santric Milicevic, Milena M and Sao Jose, Bruno Piassi and Sardana, Mayank and Sarker, Abdur Razzaque and Sarmiento-Suárez, Rodrigo and Saroshe, Satish and Sarrafzadegan, Nizal and Sartorius, Benn and Sarvi, Shahabeddin and Sathian, Brijesh and Satpathy, Maheswar and Sawant, Arundhati R and Sawhney, Monika and Saxena, Sonia and Schaeffner, Elke and Schelonka, Kathryn and Schneider, Ione J C and Schwebel, David C and Schwendicke, Falk and Seedat, Soraya and Sekerija, Mario and Sepanlou, Sadaf G and Serván-Mori, Edson and Shabaninejad, Hosein and Shackelford, Katya Anne and Shafieesabet, Azadeh and Shaheen, Amira A and Shaikh, Masood Ali and Shakir, Raad A and Shams-Beyranvand, Mehran and Shamsi, Mohammadbagher and Shamsizadeh, Morteza and Sharafi, Heidar and Sharafi, Kiomars and Sharif, Mehdi and Sharif-Alhoseini, Mahdi and Sharma, Jayendra and Sharma, Rajesh and She, Jun and Sheikh, Aziz and Shi, Peilin and Shibuya, Kenji and Shigematsu, Mika and Shiri, Rahman and Shirkoohi, Reza and Shiue, Ivy and Shokraneh, Farhad and Shukla, Sharvari Rahul and Si, Si and Siabani, Soraya and Sibai, Abla Mehio and Siddiqi, Tariq J and Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora and Sigurvinsdottir, Rannveig and Silpakit, Naris and Silva, Diego Augusto Santos and Silva, João Pedro and Silveira, Dayane Gabriele Alves and Singam, Narayana Sarma Venkata and Singh, Jasvinder A and Singh, Narinder Pal and Singh, Virendra and Sinha, Dhirendra Narain and Sliwa, Karen and Soares Filho, Adauto Martins and Sobaih, Badr Hasan and Sobhani, Soheila and Soofi, Moslem and Soriano, Joan B and Soyiri, Ireneous N and Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T and Starodubov, Vladimir I and Steiner, Caitlyn and Stewart, Leo G and Stokes, Mark A and Strong, Mark and Subart, Michelle L and Sufiyan, Mu'awiyyah Babale and Sulo, Gerhard and Sunguya, Bruno F and Sur, Patrick John and Sutradhar, Ipsita and Sykes, Bryan L and Sylaja, P N and Sylte, Dillon O and Szoeke, Cassandra E I and Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael and Tabb, Karen M and Tadakamadla, Santosh Kumar and Tandon, Nikhil and Tassew, Aberash Abay and Tassew, Segen Gebremeskel and Taveira, Nuno and Tawye, Nega Yimer and Tehrani-Banihashemi, Arash and Tekalign, Tigist Gashaw and Tekle, Merhawi Gebremedhin and Temsah, Mohamad-Hani and Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman and Teshale, Manaye Yihune and Tessema, Belay and Teweldemedhin, Mebrahtu and Thakur, Jarnail Singh and Thankappan, Kavumpurathu Raman and Thirunavukkarasu, Sathish and Thomas, Nihal and Thomson, Alan J and Tilahun, Binyam and To, Quyen G and Tonelli, Marcello and Topor-Madry, Roman and Torre, Anna E and Tortajada-Girbés, Miguel and Tovani-Palone, Marcos Roberto and Toyoshima, Hideaki and Tran, Bach Xuan and Tran, Khanh Bao and Tripathy, Srikanth Prasad and Truelsen, Thomas Clement and Truong, Nu Thi and Tsadik, Afewerki Gebremeskel and Tsegay, Amanuel and Tsilimparis, Nikolaos and Tudor Car, Lorainne and Ukwaja, Kingsley N and Ullah, Irfan and Usman, Muhammad Shariq and Uthman, Olalekan A and Uzun, Selen Begüm and Vaduganathan, Muthiah and Vaezi, Afsane and Vaidya, Gaurang and Valdez, Pascual R and Varavikova, Elena and Varughese, Santosh and Vasankari, Tommi Juhani and Vasconcelos, Ana Maria Nogales and Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy and Villafaina, Santos and Violante, Francesco S and Vladimirov, Sergey Konstantinovitch and Vlassov, Vasily and Vollset, Stein Emil and Vos, Theo and Vosoughi, Kia and Vujcic, Isidora S and Wagnew, Fasil Shiferaw and Waheed, Yasir and Walson, Judd L and Wang, Yanping and Wang, Yuan-Pang and Weiderpass, Elisabete and Weintraub, Robert G and Weldegwergs, Kidu Gidey and Werdecker, Andrea and Westerman, Ronny and Whiteford, Harvey and Widecka, Justyna and Widecka, Katarzyna and Wijeratne, Tissa and Winkler, Andrea Sylvia and Wiysonge, Charles Shey and Wolfe, Charles D A and Wu, Shouling and Wyper, Grant M A and Xu, Gelin and Yamada, Tomohide and Yano, Yuichiro and Yaseri, Mehdi and Yasin, Yasin Jemal and Ye, Pengpeng and Yentür, Gökalp Kadri and Yeshaneh, Alex and Yimer, Ebrahim M and Yip, Paul and Yisma, Engida and Yonemoto, Naohiro and Yoon, Seok-Jun and Yotebieng, Marcel and Younis, Mustafa Z and Yousefifard, Mahmoud and Yu, Chuanhua and Zadnik, Vesna and Zaidi, Zoubida and Zaman, Sojib Bin and Zamani, Mohammad and Zare, Zohreh and Zeleke, Mulugeta Molla and Zenebe, Zerihun Menlkalew and Zerfu, Taddese Alemu and Zhang, Xueying and Zhao, Xiu-Ju and Zhou, Maigeng and Zhu, Jun and Zimsen, Stephanie R M and Zodpey, Sanjay and Zoeckler, Leo and Lopez, Alan D and Lim, Stephen S. (2018) Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet, 392 (10159). pp. 1995-2051.

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Abstract

BACKGROUND:
Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods.
METHODS:
We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10-54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10-14 years and 50-54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15-19 years and 45-49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories.
FINDINGS:
From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4-52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5-4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10-19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34-40) to 22 livebirths (19-24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3-200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5-2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4-7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15-64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9-1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8-7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07-0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3-0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0-3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger.
INTERPRETATION:
Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress.
Faculties and Departments:09 Associated Institutions > Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH) > Department of Epidemiology and Public Health (EPH) > Health Interventions > Malaria Interventions (Lengeler)
09 Associated Institutions > Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH) > Department of Epidemiology and Public Health (EPH) > Household Economics and Health Systems Research > Household Health Systems (Mäusezahl)
UniBasel Contributors:Karema, Corine Kakizi and Fürst, Thomas
Item Type:Article, refereed
Article Subtype:Research Article
Publisher:Elsevier
ISSN:0140-6736
e-ISSN:1474-547X
Note:Publication type according to Uni Basel Research Database: Journal article
Language:English
Identification Number:
Last Modified:21 Dec 2018 09:50
Deposited On:21 Dec 2018 09:50

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