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Potential impact of climate change on schistosomiasis : a global assessment attempt

Yang, Guo-Jing and Bergquist, Robert. (2018) Potential impact of climate change on schistosomiasis : a global assessment attempt. Tropical medicine and infectious disease, 3 (4). E117.

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Official URL: https://edoc.unibas.ch/66811/

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Abstract

Based on an ensemble of global circulation models (GCMs), four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and several ongoing and planned Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIPs), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that global, average temperatures will increase by at least 1.5 °C in the near future and more by the end of the century if greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions are not genuinely tempered. While the RCPs are indicative of various amounts of GHGs in the atmosphere the CMIPs are designed to improve the workings of the GCMs. We chose RCP4.5 which represented a medium GHG emission increase and CMIP5, the most recently completed CMIP phase. Combining this meteorological model with a biological counterpart model accounted for replication and survival of the snail intermediate host as well as maturation of the parasite stage inside the snail at different ambient temperatures. The potential geographical distribution of the three main schistosome species:; Schistosoma japonicum; ,; S; .; mansoni; and; S; .; haematobium; was investigated with reference to their different transmission capabilities at the monthly mean temperature, the maximum temperature of the warmest month(s) and the minimum temperature of the coldest month(s). The set of six maps representing the predicted situations in 2021⁻2050 and 2071⁻2100 for each species mainly showed increased transmission areas for all three species but they also left room for potential shrinkages in certain areas.
Faculties and Departments:09 Associated Institutions > Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH)
09 Associated Institutions > Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH) > Department of Epidemiology and Public Health (EPH) > Infectious Disease Modelling > Disease and Intervention Dynamics (Penny)
UniBasel Contributors:Yang, Guojing
Item Type:Article, refereed
Article Subtype:Research Article
Publisher:Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute
ISSN:2414-6366
Note:Publication type according to Uni Basel Research Database: Journal article
Language:English
Identification Number:
Last Modified:22 Nov 2018 13:53
Deposited On:22 Nov 2018 13:53

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