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Mathematical modelling of the impact of expanding levels of malaria control interventions on Plasmodium vivax

White, Michael T. and Walker, Patrick and Karl, Stephan and Hetzel, Manuel W. and Freeman, Tim and Waltmann, Andreea and Laman, Moses and Robinson, Leanne J. and Ghani, Azra and Mueller, Ivo. (2018) Mathematical modelling of the impact of expanding levels of malaria control interventions on Plasmodium vivax. Nature Communications, 9 (1). p. 3300.

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Abstract

Plasmodium vivax poses unique challenges for malaria control and elimination, notably the potential for relapses to maintain transmission in the face of drug-based treatment and vector control strategies. We developed an individual-based mathematical model of P. vivax transmission calibrated to epidemiological data from Papua New Guinea (PNG). In many settings in PNG, increasing bed net coverage is predicted to reduce transmission to less than 0.1% prevalence by light microscopy, however there is substantial risk of rebounds in transmission if interventions are removed prematurely. In several high transmission settings, model simulations predict that combinations of existing interventions are not sufficient to interrupt P. vivax transmission. This analysis highlights the potential options for the future of P. vivax control: maintaining existing public health gains by keeping transmission suppressed through indefinite distribution of interventions; or continued development of strategies based on existing and new interventions to push for further reduction and towards elimination.
Faculties and Departments:09 Associated Institutions > Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH)
09 Associated Institutions > Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH) > Department of Epidemiology and Public Health (EPH) > Health Interventions > Malaria Interventions (Lengeler)
UniBasel Contributors:Hetzel, Manuel W.
Item Type:Article, refereed
Article Subtype:Research Article
Publisher:Nature Publishing Group
e-ISSN:2041-1723
Note:Publication type according to Uni Basel Research Database: Journal article
Language:English
Identification Number:
Last Modified:11 Sep 2018 12:45
Deposited On:11 Sep 2018 12:45

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