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Mathematical analysis to prioritise strategies for malaria elimination

Chitnis, Nakul and Schapira, Allan and Schindler, Christian and Penny, Melissa A. and Smith, Thomas A.. (2018) Mathematical analysis to prioritise strategies for malaria elimination. Journal of theoretical biology, 455. pp. 118-130.

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Abstract

Malaria and some other tropical diseases are currently targeted for elimination and eventually eradication. Since resources are limited, prioritisation of countries or areas for elimination is often necessary. However, this prioritisation is frequently conducted in an ad hoc manner. Lower transmission areas are usually targeted for elimination first, but for some areas this necessitates long and potentially expensive surveillance programs while transmission is eliminated from neighbouring higher transmission areas. We use a mathematical model to compare the implications of prioritisation choices in reducing overall burden and costs. We show that when the duration of the elimination program is independent of the transmission potential, burden is always reduced most by targeting high transmission areas first, but to reduce costs the optimal ordering depends on the actual transmission levels. In general, when overall transmission potential is low and the surveillance cost per secondary case compared to the cost per imported case is low, targeting the higher transmission area for elimination first is favoured.
Faculties and Departments:09 Associated Institutions > Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH)
UniBasel Contributors:Chitnis, Nakul and Schapira, Allan and Schindler, Christian and Penny, Melissa and Smith, Thomas A.
Item Type:Article, refereed
Article Subtype:Research Article
Publisher:Elsevier
ISSN:1095-8541
Note:Publication type according to Uni Basel Research Database: Journal article
Language:English
Identification Number:
Last Modified:05 Sep 2018 08:31
Deposited On:05 Sep 2018 08:31

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