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Towards estimates of future rainfall erosivity in Europe based on REDES and WorldClim datasets

Panagos, Panos and Ballabio, Cristiano and Meusburger, Katrin and Spinoni, Jonathan and Alewell, Christine and Borrelli, Pasquale. (2017) Towards estimates of future rainfall erosivity in Europe based on REDES and WorldClim datasets. Journal of Hydrology, 548. pp. 251-262.

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Abstract

The policy requests to develop trends in soil erosion changes can be responded developing modelling scenarios of the two most dynamic factors in soil erosion, i.e. rainfall erosivity and land cover change. The recently developed Rainfall Erosivity Database at European Scale (REDES) and a statistical approach used to spatially interpolate rainfall erosivity data have the potential to become useful knowledge to predict future rainfall erosivity based on climate scenarios. The use of a thorough statistical modelling approach (Gaussian Process Regression), with the selection of the most appropriate covariates (monthly precipitation, temperature datasets and bioclimatic layers), allowed to predict the rainfall erosivity based on climate change scenarios. The mean rainfall erosivity for the European Union and Switzerland is projected to be 857 MJ mm ha −1 h −1 yr −1 till 2050 showing a relative increase of 18% compared to baseline data (2010). The changes are heterogeneous in the European continent depending on the future projections of most erosive months (hot period: April–September). The output results report a pan-European projection of future rainfall erosivity taking into account the uncertainties of the climatic models.
Faculties and Departments:05 Faculty of Science > Departement Umweltwissenschaften > Umweltgeowissenschaften > Umweltgeowissenschaften (Alewell)
UniBasel Contributors:Borrelli, Pasquale and Di Bella, Katrin and Alewell, Christine
Item Type:Article, refereed
Article Subtype:Research Article
Publisher:Elsevier
ISSN:0022-1694
e-ISSN:1879-2707
Note:Publication type according to Uni Basel Research Database: Journal article
Language:English
Identification Number:
Last Modified:25 Jun 2018 11:37
Deposited On:25 Jun 2018 11:37

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