A new paradigm to measure probabilistic reasoning and a possible answer to the question why psychosis-prone individuals jump to conclusions

Moritz, Steffen and Göritz, Anja S. and Balzan, Ryan P. and Gawęda, Lukasz and Kulagin, Susan C. and Andreou, Christina. (2017) A new paradigm to measure probabilistic reasoning and a possible answer to the question why psychosis-prone individuals jump to conclusions. Journal of abnormal psychology, 126 (4). pp. 406-415.

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Official URL: http://edoc.unibas.ch/58226/

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Jumping to conclusions (JTC) distinguishes patients with schizophrenia from both healthy and psychiatric controls. JTC is typically assessed using the beads task, which, however, faces a number of limitations as to its interpretability and reliability. The present study set out to validate a new paradigm to assess JTC: the box task. We adopted a psychometric psychosis proneness approach and divided a large population sample into participants who scored high versus low on a scale tapping psychosis-like experiences. Participants performed a variant of the original beads task along with a new JTC task, the box task, with or without time pressure. The box task requires participants to infer which of two ball colors will be more prevalent in a matrix of boxes. The box task and the beads task were significantly correlated at a medium effect size, thus demonstrating criterion validity for the box task. As hypothesized, participants who scored high on psychosis-like experiences showed particularly strong JTC and a decreased decision threshold relative to low scorers, especially in the box task version with time pressure; in contrast, group differences in the beads tasks only achieved trend-wise significance. Mediation analyses showed that fewer draws to decisions were predicted by either a lower decision threshold or by higher initial probability estimates for the dominant item. The study establishes the criterion and construct validity of a new JTC task. Its advantages over the traditional beads task are better comprehensibility and usability; multiple parallel versions can be created thus raising reliability. (PsycINFO Database Record
Faculties and Departments:03 Faculty of Medicine > Bereich Psychiatrie (Klinik) > Erwachsenenpsychiatrie UPK > Erwachsenenpsychiatrie (Riecher-Rössler)
03 Faculty of Medicine > Departement Klinische Forschung > Bereich Psychiatrie (Klinik) > Erwachsenenpsychiatrie UPK > Erwachsenenpsychiatrie (Riecher-Rössler)
UniBasel Contributors:Andreou, Christina
Item Type:Article, refereed
Article Subtype:Research Article
Publisher:American Psychological Association
Note:Publication type according to Uni Basel Research Database: Journal article
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Last Modified:10 Jul 2020 12:22
Deposited On:10 Jul 2020 12:22

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