Prediction of plant species distributions across six millennia

Pearman, P. B. and Randin, C. F. and Broennimann, O. and Vittoz, P. and van der Knaap, W. O. and Engler, R. and Le Lay, G. and Zimmermann, N. E. and Guisan, A.. (2008) Prediction of plant species distributions across six millennia. Ecology Letters, 11 (4). pp. 357-369.

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Official URL: http://edoc.unibas.ch/46761/

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The usefulness of species distribution models (SDMs) in predicting impacts of climate change on biodiversity is difficult to assess because changes in species ranges may take decades or centuries to occur. One alternative way to evaluate the predictive ability of SDMs across time is to compare their predictions with data on past species distributions. We use data on plant distributions, fossil pollen and current and mid-Holocene climate to test the ability of SDMs to predict past climate-change impacts. We find that species showing little change in the estimated position of their realized niche, with resulting good model performance, tend to be dominant competitors for light. Different mechanisms appear to be responsible for among-species differences in model performance. Confidence in predictions of the impacts of climate change could be improved by selecting species with characteristics that suggest little change is expected in the relationships between species occurrence and climate patterns.
Faculties and Departments:05 Faculty of Science > Departement Umweltwissenschaften > Ehemalige Einheiten Umweltwissenschaften > Pflanzenökologie (Körner)
UniBasel Contributors:Randin, Christophe
Item Type:Article, refereed
Article Subtype:Research Article
Note:Publication type according to Uni Basel Research Database: Journal article
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Last Modified:28 Nov 2017 10:45
Deposited On:28 Nov 2017 10:45

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