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Air pollution modelling for birth cohorts: a time-space regression model

Proietti, Elena and Delgado-Eckert, Edgar and Vienneau, Danielle and Stern, Georgette and Tsai, Ming-Yi and Latzin, Philipp and Frey, Urs and Röösli, Martin. (2016) Air pollution modelling for birth cohorts: a time-space regression model. Environmental Health, 15. p. 61.

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Abstract

BACKGROUND: To investigate air pollution effects during pregnancy or in the first weeks of life, models are needed that capture both the spatial and temporal variability of air pollution exposures.
METHODS: We developed a time-space exposure model for ambient NO2 concentrations in Bern, Switzerland. We used NO2 data from passive monitoring conducted between 1998 and 2009: 101 rural sites (24,499 biweekly measurements) and 45 urban sites (4350 monthly measurements). We evaluated spatial predictors (land use; roads; traffic; population; annual NO2 from a dispersion model) and temporal predictors (meteorological conditions; NO2 from continuous monitoring station). Separate rural and urban models were developed by multivariable regression techniques. We performed ten-fold internal cross-validation, and an external validation using 57 NO2 passive measurements obtained at study participant's homes.
RESULTS: Traffic related explanatory variables and fixed site NO2 measurements were the most relevant predictors in both models. The coefficient of determination (R(2)) for the log transformed models were 0.63 (rural) and 0.54 (urban); cross-validation R(2)s were unchanged indicating robust coefficient estimates. External validation showed R(2)s of 0.54 (rural) and 0.67 (urban).
CONCLUSIONS: This approach is suitable for air pollution exposure prediction in epidemiologic research with time-vulnerable health effects such as those occurring during pregnancy or in the first weeks of life.
Faculties and Departments:09 Associated Institutions > Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH)
09 Associated Institutions > Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH) > Department of Epidemiology and Public Health (EPH) > Environmental Exposures and Health > Physical Hazards and Health (Röösli)
UniBasel Contributors:Röösli, Martin and Vienneau, Danielle and Tsai, Ming
Item Type:Article, refereed
Article Subtype:Research Article
Publisher:BioMed Central
e-ISSN:1476-069X
Note:Publication type according to Uni Basel Research Database: Journal article
Language:English
Identification Number:
Last Modified:01 Nov 2016 08:33
Deposited On:31 Aug 2016 13:03

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