(Mis-)predicted subjective well-being following life events

Odermatt, Reto and Stutzer, Alois. (2015) (Mis-)predicted subjective well-being following life events. IZA discussion paper series, (9252). Bonn.

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Official URL: http://edoc.unibas.ch/40445/

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The correct prediction of how alternative states of the world affect our lives is a cornerstone of economics. We study how accurate people are in predicting their future well-being when facing major life events. Based on individual panel data, we compare people's forecast of their life satisfaction in five years' time to their actual realisations later on. This is done after the individuals experience widowhood, marriage, unemployment or disability. We find systematic prediction errors that are at least partly driven by unforeseen adaptation.
Faculties and Departments:06 Faculty of Business and Economics > Departement Wirtschaftswissenschaften > Professuren Wirtschaftswissenschaften > Politische ├ľkonomie (Stutzer)
UniBasel Contributors:Stutzer, Alois and Odermatt, Reto
Item Type:Working Paper
Publisher:Institut zur Zukunft der Arbeit
Number of Pages:42
Note:Publication type according to Uni Basel Research Database: Discussion paper / Internet publication
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Last Modified:05 Jul 2016 13:35
Deposited On:02 May 2016 12:39

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