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What is needed to eradicate lymphatic filariasis? : A model-based assessment on the impact of scaling up mass drug administration programs

Kastner, Randee J. and Stone, Christopher M. and Steinmann, Peter and Tanner, Marcel and Tediosi, Fabrizio. (2015) What is needed to eradicate lymphatic filariasis? : A model-based assessment on the impact of scaling up mass drug administration programs. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, Vol. 9, H. 10 , e0004147.

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Official URL: http://edoc.unibas.ch/dok/A6438852

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Abstract

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a neglected tropical disease for which more than a billion people in 73 countries are thought to be at-risk. At a global level, the efforts against LF are designed as an elimination program. However, current efforts appear to aim for elimination in some but not all endemic areas. With the 2020 goal of elimination looming, we set out to develop plausible scale-up scenarios to reach global elimination and eradication. We predict the duration of mass drug administration (MDA) necessary to reach local elimination for a variety of transmission archetypes using an existing model of LF transmission, estimate the number of treatments required for each scenario, and consider implications of rapid scale-up.; We have defined four scenarios that differ in their geographic coverage and rate of scale-up. For each scenario, country-specific simulations and calculations were performed that took into account the pre-intervention transmission intensity, the different vector genera, drug regimen, achieved level of population coverage, previous progress toward elimination, and potential programmatic delays due to mapping, operations, and administration.; Our results indicate that eliminating LF by 2020 is unlikely. If MDA programs are drastically scaled up and expanded, the final round of MDA for LF eradication could be delivered in 2028 after 4,159 million treatments. However, if the current rate of scale-up is maintained, the final round of MDA to eradicate LF may not occur until 2050.; Rapid scale-up of MDA will decrease the amount of time and treatments required to reach LF eradication. It may also propel the program towards success, as the risk of failure is likely to increase with extended program duration.
Faculties and Departments:09 Associated Institutions > Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH)
09 Associated Institutions > Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH) > Former Units within Swiss TPH > Health Systems and Policies (de Savigny)
UniBasel Contributors:Stone, Chris and Steinmann, Peter and Tanner, Marcel and Tediosi, Fabrizio
Item Type:Article, refereed
Article Subtype:Research Article
Bibsysno:Link to catalogue
ISSN:1935-2727
Note:Publication type according to Uni Basel Research Database: Journal article
Language:English
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Last Modified:31 Dec 2015 10:59
Deposited On:06 Nov 2015 10:21

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