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Seasonally dependent relationships between indicators of malaria transmission and disease provided by mathematical model simulations

Stuckey, Erin M. and Smith, Thomas and Chitnis, Nakul. (2014) Seasonally dependent relationships between indicators of malaria transmission and disease provided by mathematical model simulations. PLoS Computational Biology, Vol. 10, H. 9 , e1003812.

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Abstract

Evaluating the effectiveness of malaria control interventions on the basis of their impact on transmission as well as impact on morbidity and mortality is becoming increasingly important as countries consider pre-elimination and elimination as well as disease control. Data on prevalence and transmission are traditionally obtained through resource-intensive epidemiological and entomological surveys that become difficult as transmission decreases. This work employs mathematical modeling to examine the relationships between malaria indicators allowing more easily measured data, such as routine health systems data on case incidence, to be translated into measures of transmission and other malaria indicators. Simulations of scenarios with different levels of malaria transmission, patterns of seasonality and access to treatment were run with an ensemble of models of malaria epidemiology and within-host dynamics, as part of the OpenMalaria modeling platform. For a given seasonality profile, regression analysis mapped simulation results of malaria indicators, such as annual average entomological inoculation rate, prevalence, incidence of uncomplicated and severe episodes, and mortality, to an expected range of values of any of the other indicators. Results were validated by comparing simulated relationships between indicators with previously published data on these same indicators as observed in malaria endemic areas. These results allow for direct comparisons of malaria transmission intensity estimates made using data collected with different methods on different indicators. They also address key concerns with traditional methods of quantifying transmission in areas of differing transmission intensity and sparse data. Although seasonality of transmission is often ignored in data compilations, the models suggest it can be critically important in determining the relationship between transmission and disease. Application of these models could help public health official detect changes of disease dynamics in a population and plan and assess the impact of malaria control interventions.
Faculties and Departments:09 Associated Institutions > Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH)
09 Associated Institutions > Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH) > Department of Epidemiology and Public Health (EPH) > Infectious Disease Modelling > Infectious Disease Modelling (Smith)
UniBasel Contributors:Smith, Thomas A. and Chitnis, Nakul
Item Type:Article, refereed
Article Subtype:Research Article
Bibsysno:Link to catalogue
Publisher:Library of Science
ISSN:1553-734X
e-ISSN:1553-7358
Note:Publication type according to Uni Basel Research Database: Journal article
Language:English
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Last Modified:12 Oct 2017 10:13
Deposited On:07 Nov 2014 08:28

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