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Development and back-extrapolation of NO2 land use regression models for historic exposure assessment in Great Britain

Gulliver, John and de Hoogh, Kees and Hansell, Anna and Vienneau, Danielle. (2013) Development and back-extrapolation of NO2 land use regression models for historic exposure assessment in Great Britain. Environmental science and technology, Vol. 47, H. 14. pp. 7804-7811.

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Official URL: http://edoc.unibas.ch/dok/A6164989

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Abstract

Modeling historic air pollution exposures is often restricted by availability of monitored concentration data. We evaluated back-extrapolation of land use regression (LUR) models for annual mean NO2 concentrations in Great Britain for up to 18 years earlier. LUR variables were created in a geographic information system (GIS) using land cover and road network data summarized within buffers, site coordinates, and altitude. Four models were developed for 2009 and 2001 using 75% of monitoring sites (in different groupings) and evaluated on the remaining 25%. Variables selected were generally stable between models. Within year, hold-out validation yielded mean-squared-error-based R(2) (MSE-R(2)) (i.e., fit around the 1:1 line) values of 0.25-0.63 and 0.51-0.65 for 2001 and 2009, respectively. Back-extrapolation was conducted for 2009 and 2001 models to 1991 and for 2009 models to 2001, adjusting to the year using two background NO2 monitoring sites. Evaluation of back-extrapolated predictions used 100% of sites from an historic national NO2 diffusion tube network (n = 451) for 1991 and 70 independent sites from automatic monitoring in 2001. Values of MSE-R(2) for back-extrapolation to 1991 were 0.42-0.45 and 0.52-0.55 for 2001 and 2009 models, respectively, but model performance varied by region. Back-extrapolation of LUR models appears valid for exposure assessment for NO2 back to 1991 for Great Britain.
Faculties and Departments:09 Associated Institutions > Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH)
09 Associated Institutions > Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH) > Department of Epidemiology and Public Health (EPH) > Environmental Exposures and Health > Physical Hazards and Health (Röösli)
UniBasel Contributors:Vienneau, Danielle
Item Type:Article, refereed
Article Subtype:Research Article
Bibsysno:Link to catalogue
Publisher:American Chemical Soc.
ISSN:0013-936X
Note:Publication type according to Uni Basel Research Database: Journal article
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Last Modified:08 Nov 2013 08:29
Deposited On:08 Nov 2013 08:29

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