Prognostic models with competing risks : methods and application to coronary risk prediction

Wolbers, Marcel and Koller, Michael T. and Witteman, Jacqueline C. M. and Steyerberg, Ewout W.. (2009) Prognostic models with competing risks : methods and application to coronary risk prediction. Epidemiology, Vol. 20. pp. 555-561.

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Official URL: http://edoc.unibas.ch/dok/A6006927

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Clinical decision-making often relies on a subject's absolute risk of a disease event of interest. However, in a frail population, competing risk events may preclude the occurrence of the event of interest. We review competing-risk regression models with a view toward predictive modeling. We show how measures of prognostic performance (such as calibration and discrimination) can be adapted to the competing-risks setting. An example of coronary heart disease (CHD) prediction in women aged 55-90 years in the Rotterdam study is used to illustrate the proposed methods, and to compare the Fine and Gray regression model to 2 alternative approaches: (1) a standard Cox survival model, which ignores the competing risk of non-CHD death, and (2) a cause-specific hazards model, which combines proportional hazards models for the event of interest and the competing event. The Fine and Gray model and the cause-specific hazards model perform similarly. However, the standard Cox model substantially overestimates 10-year risk of CHD; it classifies 18% of the individuals as high risk (<20%), compared with only 8% according to the Fine and Gray model. We conclude that competing risks have to be considered explicitly in frail populations such as the elderly.
Faculties and Departments:03 Faculty of Medicine > Departement Klinische Forschung > Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics CEB > Klinische Epidemiologie (Bucher H)
UniBasel Contributors:Koller, Michael
Item Type:Article, refereed
Article Subtype:Research Article
Publisher:Lippincott Williams & Wilkins
Note:Publication type according to Uni Basel Research Database: Journal article
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Last Modified:01 Mar 2013 11:14
Deposited On:01 Mar 2013 11:11

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