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The effect of malaria control on Plasmodium falciparum in Africa between 2000 and 2015

Bhatt, S. and Weiss, D. J. and Cameron, E. and Bisanzio, D. and Mappin, B. and Dalrymple, U. and Battle, K. E. and Moyes, C. L. and Henry, A. and Eckhoff, P. A. and Wenger, E. A. and Briët, O. and Penny, M. A. and Smith, T. A. and Bennett, A. and Yukich, J. and Eisele, T. P. and Griffin, J. T. and Fergus, C. A. and Lynch, M. and Lindgren, F. and Cohen, J. M. and Murray, C. L. J. and Smith, D. L. and Hay, S. I. and Cibulskis, R. E. and Gething, P. W.. (2015) The effect of malaria control on Plasmodium falciparum in Africa between 2000 and 2015. Nature, 526 (7572). pp. 207-211.

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Official URL: http://edoc.unibas.ch/41275/

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Abstract

Since the year 2000, a concerted campaign against malaria has led to unprecedented levels of intervention coverage across sub-Saharan Africa. Understanding the effect of this control effort is vital to inform future control planning. However, the effect of malaria interventions across the varied epidemiological settings of Africa remains poorly understood owing to the absence of reliable surveillance data and the simplistic approaches underlying current disease estimates. Here we link a large database of malaria field surveys with detailed reconstructions of changing intervention coverage to directly evaluate trends from 2000 to 2015, and quantify the attributable effect of malaria disease control efforts. We found that Plasmodium falciparum infection prevalence in endemic Africa halved and the incidence of clinical disease fell by 40% between 2000 and 2015. We estimate that interventions have averted 663 (542-753 credible interval) million clinical cases since 2000. Insecticide-treated nets, the most widespread intervention, were by far the largest contributor (68% of cases averted). Although still below target levels, current malaria interventions have substantially reduced malaria disease incidence across the continent. Increasing access to these interventions, and maintaining their effectiveness in the face of insecticide and drug resistance, should form a cornerstone of post-2015 control strategies.
Faculties and Departments:09 Associated Institutions > Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH)
09 Associated Institutions > Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH) > Department of Epidemiology and Public Health (EPH) > Health Systems Research and Dynamic Modelling > Dynamical Modelling (Smith)
UniBasel Contributors:Smith, Thomas A. and Briët, Olivier and Penny, Melissa
Item Type:Article, refereed
Publisher:Macmillan
ISSN:0028-0836
Note:Publication type according to Uni Basel Research Database: Journal article
Identification Number:
Last Modified:30 Jun 2016 11:02
Deposited On:11 Apr 2016 12:43

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