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Modelling vertical transmission in vector-borne diseases with applications to Rift Valley fever

Chitnis, Nakul and Hyman, James M. and Manore, Carrie A.. (2013) Modelling vertical transmission in vector-borne diseases with applications to Rift Valley fever. Journal of biological dynamics, Vol. 7, H. 1. S. 11-40.

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Official URL: http://edoc.unibas.ch/dok/A6094285

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Abstract

We present two ordinary differential equation models for Rift Valley fever (RVF) transmission in cattle and mosquitoes. We extend existing models for vector-borne diseases to include an asymptomatic host class and vertical transmission in vectors. We define the basic reproductive number, R(0), and analyse the existence and stability of equilibrium points. We compute sensitivity indices of R(0) and a reactivity index (that measures epidemicity) to parameters for baseline wet and dry season values. R(0) is most sensitive to the mosquito biting and death rates. The reactivity index is most sensitive to the mosquito biting rate and the infectivity of hosts to vectors. Numerical simulations show that even with low equilibrium prevalence, increases in mosquito densities through higher rainfall, in the presence of vertical transmission, can result in large epidemics. This suggests that vertical transmission is an important factor in the size and persistence of RVF epidemics.
Faculties and Departments:09 Associated Institutions > Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH) > Department of Epidemiology and Public Health (EPH) > Health Systems Research and Dynamic Modelling
UniBasel Contributors:Chitnis, Nakul
Item Type:Article, refereed
Bibsysno:Link to catalogue
Publisher:Taylor and Francis]
Note:Publication type according to Uni Basel Research Database: Journal article
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Last Modified:04 Sep 2015 14:32
Deposited On:19 Jul 2013 07:39

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